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Serie A

Athletico PR - Mirassol

05/30/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Mirassol
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
APMIR

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.43
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 18, 14 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.00
JoĂŁo Cruz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Mirassol

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 4, 14 places gap)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Igor Formiga not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Athletico PR with Renan Peixoto: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Mirassol with Carlos Eduardo: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Mirassol: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Athletico PR with 55% probability
  • Athletico PR's home strength is evident with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per home game
  • Mirassol's recent form is rated as negative, while Athletico PR's form is stable
Risk Factors
  • Mirassol is missing key players, including Igor Formiga (3 goals/0 assists), accounting for 9% of the usual goal threat
  • The mathematical analysis predicts only a 41% probability for over 2.5 goals
  • Mirassol averaged 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Athletico PR (4th place, 27 points) host Mirassol (18th place, 16 points) at Arena de Baixada

Serie A match on May 30, 2026, 7:00 PM

Athletico PR is fighting for international spots, while Mirassol is battling relegation

Form

Athletico PR's form in the last five games is: WDLDW

The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Mirassol's form in the last five games is LWDLW

This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Statistics

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.35 goals per game and concedes 1.06 goals per game this season

At home, Athletico PR is strong, averaging 1.33 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Mirassol averages 1.13 goals scored and concedes 1.44 goals per game

Away from home, Mirassol is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game

Arena de Baixada sees an average of 2.6 goals per game

In 60% of the last 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams

Key Players

Key players for Athletico PR include Kevin Viveros, Stiven Mendoza, and GastĂłn BenavĂ­dez

Kevin Viveros scored 10 season goals and 1 assist, with an average rating of 7.04

Stiven Mendoza has 5 season goals, with a rating of 7.0

GastĂłn BenavĂ­dez contributed 5 assists and has an average rating of 6.95

For Mirassol, Alesson, Willian Machado, and Carlos Eduardo are notable

Alesson provided 4 assists this season with a rating of 6.86

Willian Machado scored 1 season goal and 1 assist, with a rating of 7.11

Carlos Eduardo recorded 1 season goal and 1 assist, with a rating of 6.75

Goalkeepers

Athletico PR's goalkeeper, Santos, achieved 3 home clean sheets this season

Mirassol's goalkeeper, Walter, recorded no away clean sheets this season

Influences

Arena de Baixada is the home ground for Athletico PR

Athletico PR shows strong home performance with an average of 1.33 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded

Mirassol struggles away from home with an average of 2.0 goals conceded per away game

The grass pitch at the stadium should not have a specific influence on the game

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