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Athletico PR – Mirassol1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Athletico PR
1.56
Total xG
2.32
Mirassol
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletico PR | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.43 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 4, 14 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 18, 14 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.00 | |
| João Cruz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Igor Formiga not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 91% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Athletico PR with 55% probability
- Athletico PR's home strength is evident with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per home game
- Mirassol's recent form is rated as negative, while Athletico PR's form is stable
Risks
- Mirassol is missing key players, including Igor Formiga (3 goals/0 assists), accounting for 9% of the usual goal threat
- The mathematical analysis predicts only a 41% probability for over 2.5 goals
- Mirassol averaged 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Athletico PR55%
Draw28%
Mirassol17%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Athletico PR or draw83%
Mirassol or draw45%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Athletico PR with Renan Peixoto: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Mirassol with Carlos Eduardo: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Mirassol: 75% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Athletico PR 3-4-2-1 · Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Athletico PR
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 5 A. Costa
- 26 C. de Jesus Passos
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 21 J. Soares de Oliveira Filho
- 8 Denilson
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
Substitutes
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 11 I. Rodrigues de Lima
- 20 J. Silva Oliveira Junior
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 42 M. Soares Rocha
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 99 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
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