Serie A05/30/2026, 08:30 PM

Bahia – Botafogo2 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Bahia

1.21

Total xG

2.23

Botafogo

1.02

Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

Factor	Bahia	Botafogo
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)	+0.68
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)	−0.63
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean	+0.29
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)		−0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)		−0.08
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean		+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)	+0.05
Luciano Juba not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Jean Lucas on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Everton Ribeiro on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 50% available)
Danilo not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
Matheus Martins on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Alexander Barboza not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Vitinho on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Key factors

Bahia's squad strength is critically impacted, with only 50% of the usual starting XI goal threat available, as key players like Luciano Juba (7G/1A), Jean Lucas (2G/2A), and Everton Ribeiro (0G/4A) are missing
Botafogo exhibits a very vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per away game
The mathematical analysis predicts a 38% home win probability and a 71% chance for Bahia to win or draw, supported by Bahia's improved scoring rate (avg 1.6 goals) and a positive recent form trend according to advanced statistics

Risks

Botafogo also faces a critical squad impact, with only 68% of their usual starting XI goal threat available, missing key players like Danilo (7G/2A) and Matheus Martins (4G/0A)
Bahia's actual form in the last five games shows 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, indicating a lack of victories despite some draws
The Arena Fonte Nova is known for high-scoring games (avg 3.0 goals/match), with 80% of matches seeing both teams score and over 2.5 goals, which can make the outcome less predictable

All probabilities

Result

Bahia38%

Draw32%

Botafogo29%

Goals

Over 1.567%

Under 1.533%

Over 2.539%

Under 2.561%

Over 3.519%

Under 3.581%

Double chance

Bahia or draw71%

Botafogo or draw62%

No draw68%

Both teams score

Yes47%

No53%

Most likely scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

2:1

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

Bahia: scored only after the break in 6 of 8 games
Bahia: 85% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Botafogo: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
Botafogo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Botafogo: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Lineups

Bahia 4-3-3 · Botafogo 4-2-3-1

Bahia

1 R. de Oliveira Strada
2 G. Moraes Junior
33 D. de Duarte Macedo
21 S. Ramos Mingo
66 J. de Lima Costa
14 E. Conrado Carvalho
8 C. Souza e Silva
11 R. Bertalia
16 E. da Costa Farias
12 W. da Silva
99 C. Olivera Ibarra

Botafogo

22 N. Murara Neto
4 M. Ponte Costa
5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
34 E. Justino
13 A. Telles
75 V. de Melo Moura
6 C. Medina
77 L. Villalba Jaume
10 ?. Montoro
59 K. Almeida Toledo
19 A. Mendonça Cabral

Substitutes

44 M. Ferreira da Silva
6 J. de Souza Oliveira
31 R. Gómez
23 M. Sanabria
27 E. Stum
3 G. Lhman Xavier
7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
15 M. Araújo Villar
10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
4 V. Soares dos Santos
61 V. dos Santos Nascimento
90 Caio Suassuna

2 V. da Silva
28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
1 R. Steffens
3 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
27 Caio Gomes
88 E. Andrade dos Santos
11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
9 C. Ramos de la Flor
14 J. Barrera Herrera
23 S. Rodríguez Molina
45 C. Ribeiro do Valle Silva
26 A. Ciriano Oliveira

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