đŸ‡§đŸ‡·

Serie A

Bahia - Botafogo

05/30/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Bahia
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Botafogo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
BAHBOT

Bahia

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.63
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Luciano Juba not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Jean Lucas on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Everton Ribeiro   on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 50% available)

Botafogo

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.68
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Danilo not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
Matheus Martins on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Alexander Barboza not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Vitinho on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bahia: scored only after the break in 6 of 8 games

  • 2
    Bahia: 85% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Botafogo: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 4
    Botafogo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Botafogo: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Bahia's squad strength is critically impacted, with only 50% of the usual starting XI goal threat available, as key players like Luciano Juba (7G/1A), Jean Lucas (2G/2A), and Everton Ribeiro (0G/4A) are missing
  • Botafogo exhibits a very vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per away game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 38% home win probability and a 71% chance for Bahia to win or draw, supported by Bahia's improved scoring rate (avg 1.6 goals) and a positive recent form trend according to advanced statistics
Risk Factors
  • Botafogo also faces a critical squad impact, with only 68% of their usual starting XI goal threat available, missing key players like Danilo (7G/2A) and Matheus Martins (4G/0A)
  • Bahia's actual form in the last five games shows 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, indicating a lack of victories despite some draws
  • The Arena Fonte Nova is known for high-scoring games (avg 3.0 goals/match), with 80% of matches seeing both teams score and over 2.5 goals, which can make the outcome less predictable
Overview

Bahia (8th place, 23 points) host Botafogo (10th place, 22 points) at the Arena Fonte Nova

Serie A match on May 30, 2026, 10:30 PM

Both teams are in the mid-table and are fighting for a better league position

Form

Bahia's form in their last five matches is DDLDL

This translates to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Their last game resulted in a loss

Botafogo's form in their last five matches is DLDWD

This indicates 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Their most recent match ended in a draw

Bahia is currently scoring more frequently (avg 1.6 goals) than their season average (avg 1.4 goals)

Botafogo's goal production is currently stagnant (avg 1.6 goals), while their season average is 1.9 goals

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Bahia scores an average of 1.44 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals

At home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game

Botafogo averages 1.88 goals scored per game but concedes 1.81 goals

Away, they score an average of 1.88 goals and concede 2.12 goals per game

At the Arena Fonte Nova, an average of 3.0 total goals have been scored per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches so far, Bahia has recorded 2 wins

Botafogo won 1 match, and 1 encounter ended in a draw

Bahia scored 4 goals in these meetings, Botafogo 3 goals

The last match was won by Botafogo on October 2, 2025, with a score of 2:1

Key Players

For Bahia, Willian José (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.02 rating in last 5 games) and Erick (2 goals, avg 6.81 rating in last 5 games) are important offensive players

Cristian Olivera contributed with 1 goal and 1 assist to the season's performance

For Botafogo, Arthur Cabral stands out with 7 season goals and 4 goals in the last 5 games (avg 7.36 rating in last 5 games)

Cristian Medina scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games (avg 7.20 rating in last 5 games)

Alex Telles provided 2 season goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games (avg 6.94 rating in last 5 games)

Goalkeepers

Bahia's goalkeeper Ronaldo has a season average rating of 7.07

He recorded 4 clean sheets this season, 2 of them in home games

Botafogo's goalkeeper Neto has a season average rating of 6.74

He achieved 1 clean sheet this season, but has not kept a clean sheet away from home

Influences

Bahia shows solid performance at home with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded

Botafogo is more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per game

The Arena Fonte Nova is known for high-scoring encounters, with an average of 3.0 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.