🇧🇷

Serie A

Bragantino - Internacional

05/31/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Bragantino
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Internacional
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BRAINT

Bragantino

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.50
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Henry Mosquera not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)

Internacional

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.23
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.07
Alexandro Bernabei not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bragantino with Fernando : 7.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Bragantino: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    Internacional: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

31%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Favoritism: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bragantino with a 45% probability and 1.33 predicted home goals
  • Home Defensive Strength: Bragantino shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding only 0.8 goals per home game on average
  • Historical Head-to-Head: Internacional dominates direct comparisons with 3 wins in 4 matches and a goal difference of 12:5
Overview

Bragantino (5th place, 26 points) host Internacional (14th place, 21 points) at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques. This Serie A match takes place on May 31, 2026, 4:00 PM. Bragantino aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table, while Internacional seeks to distance itself from the relegation zone

Form

Bragantino shows mixed form with a LWLWW record in the last five games

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses

They recently secured two consecutive wins

Internacional had a DWDWL record in their last five matches

This equates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last game resulted in a defeat

Statistics

Bragantino averages 1.29 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.06 goals

At home, Bragantino is defensively strong, with 1.3 home goals scored and only 0.8 home goals conceded per game

Internacional averages 1.18 goals scored per game and concedes 1.12 goals

Away from home, Internacional scores 1.12 goals per game and concedes 1.25 goals

Bragantino kept 6 clean sheets, Internacional 4 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 7 of Bragantino's games and 9 of Internacional's games

The venue averaged 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games at this venue

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Bragantino has not managed a win against Internacional

Internacional won 3 of these matches, with 1 ending in a draw

The goal difference of 12:5 clearly favors Internacional

The last encounter on December 7, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for Internacional

Key Players

Bragantino's offense is led by Isidro Pitta, who contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 16 appearances

Lucas Barbosa scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 15 games

Midfielder Gabriel contributed 2 goals in 15 appearances

For Internacional, Johan Carbonero is an important attacker with 4 goals and 3 assists in 16 games

Alerrandro recorded 3 goals and 3 assists in 16 appearances

Alan Patrick contributed 3 goals in 13 games

Goalkeepers

Bragantino's goalkeeper Tiago Volpi started in 10 season games and even scored 1 goal

The team recorded 6 clean sheets

Internacional's goalkeeper Anthoni played in 6 season games

The team managed 4 clean sheets

Influences

Bragantino benefits from a home advantage with 1.3 home goals scored and only 0.8 home goals conceded per game

Matches at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques average 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of games at the venue, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.