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Bragantino – Internacional3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bragantino
1.33
Total xG
2.25
Internacional
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bragantino | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Henry Mosquera not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alexandro Bernabei not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Favoritism: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bragantino with a 45% probability and 1.33 predicted home goals
- Home Defensive Strength: Bragantino shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding only 0.8 goals per home game on average
- Historical Head-to-Head: Internacional dominates direct comparisons with 3 wins in 4 matches and a goal difference of 12:5
Risks
All probabilities
Result
Bragantino45%
Draw31%
Internacional24%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Bragantino or draw76%
Internacional or draw55%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Bragantino with Fernando : 7.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Bragantino: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Internacional: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Bragantino 4-2-3-1 · Internacional 3-4-2-1
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 32 J. Herrera
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
Internacional
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 25 G. Mercado
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 8 B. Corsini
- 5 R. Villagra
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 10 A. Lourenço
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Substitutes
- 56 G. Reis Alcantara
- 57 M. Braz da Silva
- 14 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 28 Y. Silva Leles de Souza
- 46 B. d. M. Souza
- 41 Y. Alves de Aquino
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 11 K. da Silva Chagas
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 17 B. Souza Ramos
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 22 K. Jesus Santos Oliveira
- 49 João Bezerra
- 46 P. Machado
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
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