Match report →
Remo – São Paulo1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Remo
1.04
Total xG
2.26
São Paulo
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.67 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 8, 11 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 19, 11 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Jajá not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Luciano not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wendell not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sabino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Damián Bobadilla not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Statistical Prediction: The pipeline forecast indicates a 39% probability for an away win for São Paulo
- Season Performance: São Paulo is in 8th place with 25 points, while Remo is in 19th place with 15 points
- Remo's Defensive Vulnerability: Remo concedes an average of 1.71 goals per game and only managed 1 clean sheet
Risks
- Squad Gaps for São Paulo: Only 68% of the usual goal threat is available, without Luciano (6G/1A), Wendell (0G/3A), Sabino (1G/1A), and Damián Bobadilla (0G/2A)
- São Paulo's Away Weakness: The team concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Remo29%
Draw32%
São Paulo39%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Remo or draw61%
São Paulo or draw71%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Remo with Matheus Alexandre: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- São Paulo with Luciano: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- São Paulo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- São Paulo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Remo 4-2-3-1 · São Paulo 4-4-2
Remo
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 98 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 28 J. da Silva
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 28 A. Franco
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 13 E. Díaz
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
Substitutes
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 24 B. Cufré
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 14 L. Picco
- 99 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 33 D. Hernández González
- 45 J. Sousa Silva
- 7 G. Confreste Pavani
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
- 31 C. Coronel
- 14 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 2 R. Tolói
- 56 N. Bosshardt
- 45 L. Marques Alencar
- 38 H. Nunes Fernandes Santos
- 15 J. Moreira Souza
- 30 F. Negrucci Berdague
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 46 P. Ferreira da Silva
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