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Serie A

Remo - São Paulo

05/31/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Remo
1.0
Total xG
2.3
São Paulo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
REMSP

Remo

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 8, 11 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Jajá not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

São Paulo

Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 19, 11 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Luciano not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Wendell not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Sabino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Damián Bobadilla not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Remo with Matheus Alexandre: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    São Paulo with Luciano: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    São Paulo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    São Paulo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

32%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Statistical Prediction: The pipeline forecast indicates a 39% probability for an away win for São Paulo
  • Season Performance: São Paulo is in 8th place with 25 points, while Remo is in 19th place with 15 points
  • Remo's Defensive Vulnerability: Remo concedes an average of 1.71 goals per game and only managed 1 clean sheet
Risk Factors
  • Squad Gaps for São Paulo: Only 68% of the usual goal threat is available, without Luciano (6G/1A), Wendell (0G/3A), Sabino (1G/1A), and Damián Bobadilla (0G/2A)
  • São Paulo's Away Weakness: The team concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away game
Overview

Remo (19th place, 15 points) host São Paulo (8th place, 25 points) at Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

Serie A match on May 31, 2026, 8:30 PM

Remo is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle

São Paulo aims for a better mid-table position

Form

Home side Remo has a form of LWDWL in their last five matches across all competitions

This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

São Paulo shows a form of WDLLD in their last five matches

This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Remo averages 1.18 goals scored per game and concedes 1.71 goals per game

At home, they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

São Paulo scores an average of 1.35 goals and concedes 1.12 goals per match

Away from home, São Paulo scores 1.29 goals and concedes 1.86 goals on average

At Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches at this arena

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 40% of matches at this stadium

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches between these teams were found in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Remo, Alef Manga stands out with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Vitor Bueno has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

Yago Pikachu scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the current season

For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri is a key attacker with 6 goals and 1 assist in 15 season appearances

Ferreirinha has also been a goal threat with 4 season goals

Artur has 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Goalkeepers

Ivan is the starting goalkeeper for Remo

Rafael is in goal for São Paulo

Remo has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

São Paulo has registered 4 clean sheets

Influences

Home team Remo scores an average of 1.25 goals at home and concedes 1.38 goals

São Paulo scores 1.29 goals away and concedes 1.86 goals per game

The grass pitch at Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença is the playing surface for this match

Historically, this stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 40%

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