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Serie A

Mirassol - Grêmio

07/17/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Mirassol
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Grêmio
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
MIRGRÊ

Mirassol

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.52
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Willian Machado not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Shaylon on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Carlos Eduardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-0.61
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
José Enamorado not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Grêmio with Wagner Leonardo: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Mirassol with Carlos Eduardo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Grêmio: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

33%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage for Mirassol: The hosts recently averaged 4.4 shots on target per match, whereas Grêmio averaged only 2.4
  • Head-to-head dominance: Mirassol has won both of the historic meetings between these teams with a total goal difference of 5:1
  • Away weakness: Grêmio concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
Risk Factors
  • Key players missing for Mirassol: Willian Machado (1 goal, 1 assist), Shaylon (1 goal, 1 assist), and Carlos Eduardo (1 goal, 1 assist) are not nominated
  • Squad depth of the visitors: Grêmio travels with 100% of their usual starting lineup strength available
  • Personnel crisis: Both teams have to cope with a high number of injured and suspended players
Overview

Mirassol (19th place, 16 points) host Grêmio (15th place, 21 points)

Serie A match on July 17, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams are in the lower third of the standings fighting relegation

Match to be played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Form

Mirassol form: WDLWL

Grêmio form: DLDWL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Mirassol achieved 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games

Grêmio registered 1 win and 2 draws in the same period

Statistics

Mirassol scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.41 per match

Grêmio averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded

Grêmio is vulnerable on the road conceding an average of 3 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 10 of Mirassol's 17 league games

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches so far

Mirassol won both of these encounters

Overall goal ratio stands at 5:1 in favor of Mirassol

The last match on September 13, 2025 ended 1-0 for Mirassol

Key Players

Reinaldo (Defender, 1 assist, rising form trend)

Carlos Vinícius (Forward, 9 goals this season, 2 goals in last 5 matches)

Gabriel Mec (Midfielder, 2 goals in last 5 games, rising form trend)

Goalkeepers

Walter plays for Mirassol with 1 clean sheet in 17 appearances

Weverton is in goal for Grêmio with 5 clean sheets in 17 appearances

Weverton boasts a higher season rating of 7.02

Influences

The game takes place on natural grass at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

The venue history shows an average of 2.0 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of home games played at this venue

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