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Mirassol – Grêmio2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
1.23
Total xG
1.99
Grêmio
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.52 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Willian Machado not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Shaylon on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Carlos Eduardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| José Enamorado not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage for Mirassol: The hosts recently averaged 4.4 shots on target per match, whereas Grêmio averaged only 2.4
- Head-to-head dominance: Mirassol has won both of the historic meetings between these teams with a total goal difference of 5:1
- Away weakness: Grêmio concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
Risks
- Key players missing for Mirassol: Willian Machado (1 goal, 1 assist), Shaylon (1 goal, 1 assist), and Carlos Eduardo (1 goal, 1 assist) are not nominated
- Squad depth of the visitors: Grêmio travels with 100% of their usual starting lineup strength available
- Personnel crisis: Both teams have to cope with a high number of injured and suspended players
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol46%
Draw33%
Grêmio21%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.532%
Under 2.568%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw79%
Grêmio or draw54%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Grêmio with Wagner Leonardo: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Mirassol with Carlos Eduardo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Grêmio: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Mirassol 4-3-3 · Grêmio 4-3-3
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 6 R. da Silva
- 8 Denilson
- 21 J. Soares de Oliveira Filho
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 7 C. Pavón
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 5 J. Nardoni
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
- 21 Tetê
- 95 C. Alves Morais
- 9 F. Amuzu
Substitutes
- 27 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 1 G. Gonçalves
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
- 19 E. Noriega
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 33 L. Pérez
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 10 W. Borges da Silva
- 65 R. Freitas dos Santos
- 43 L. Guedes de Souza
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 11 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
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