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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Bahia

07/21/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Bahia
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AMBAH

Atlético Mineiro

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.37
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.27
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.11
Alan Minda not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Bahia

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Everton Ribeiro   on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Atlético Mineiro with Victor Hugo: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bahia with Erick: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Bahia: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

29%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Home offensive trend: Atlético Mineiro scores more frequently recently (1.6 goals per game) than their season average (1.2)
  • Tactical contrast: Bahia averaged a dominant 59% possession recently, while Atlético Mineiro counter-attacked with 41% possession
  • Tight model prediction: The mathematical simulation forecasts a slightly higher win probability for Bahia at 37% compared to 34% for Atlético Mineiro
Risk Factors
  • Bahia's away defensive weakness with an average of 1.86 goals conceded per away match
  • Key player missing for the visitors: Everton Ribeiro is unavailable, leaving only 65% of the regular starting XI strength available
Overview

Atlético Mineiro hosts Bahia at Arena MRV

Brazilian Serie A match on July 21, 2026, 11:30 PM

11th place faces 6th place in the standings

Bahia has 29 points, Atlético Mineiro has 24 points

Form

Atlético Mineiro has form string WDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Hosts recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent matches

Bahia travels with form string LDLWW

Visitors achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses lately

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro scores 1.22 goals and concedes 1.28 goals on average

Bahia scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.28 goals on average

Bahia concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Bahia leads with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Atlético Mineiro and 1 draw

The last encounter ended 3-0 for Atlético Mineiro on November 5, 2025

Key Players

Mateo Cassierra recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 4 matches

Bernard provided 2 assists with a rising form trend

Maycon scored 2 goals in the past 5 games

David Duarte contributed 1 goal and 1 assist for Bahia

Erick shows a rising form trend with 1 goal

Rodrigo Nestor scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Everson plays for Atlético Mineiro with 4 clean sheets this season

Ronaldo plays for Bahia with an average rating of 7.09

Influences

Arena MRV features a grass pitch

The stadium average stands at 2.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of past matches here

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