DumbleScore
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Serie A07/21/2026, 10:30 PM

Atlético Mineiro – Bahia1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Atlético Mineiro
1.31
Total xG
2.68
Bahia
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAtlético MineiroBahia
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)−0.37
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)−0.27
Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean−0.21
Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.11
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.03
Alan Minda not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Everton Ribeiro   on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Key factors

  • Home offensive trend: Atlético Mineiro scores more frequently recently (1.6 goals per game) than their season average (1.2)
  • Tactical contrast: Bahia averaged a dominant 59% possession recently, while Atlético Mineiro counter-attacked with 41% possession
  • Tight model prediction: The mathematical simulation forecasts a slightly higher win probability for Bahia at 37% compared to 34% for Atlético Mineiro

Risks

  • Bahia's away defensive weakness with an average of 1.86 goals conceded per away match
  • Key player missing for the visitors: Everton Ribeiro is unavailable, leaving only 65% of the regular starting XI strength available

All probabilities

Result
Atlético Mineiro34%
Draw29%
Bahia37%
Double chance
Atlético Mineiro or draw63%
Bahia or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
  2. Atlético Mineiro with Victor Hugo: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
  3. Bahia with Erick: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
  4. Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
  5. Bahia: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Lineups

Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · Bahia 4-4-2

Atlético Mineiro
  • 22 E. Marques Pires
  • 2 Natanael
  • 4 R. Tressoldi Netto
  • 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
  • 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
  • 25 T. Pérez
  • 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
  • 28 T. Cuello
  • 30 V. Gomes Silva
  • 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
  • 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
Bahia
  • 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
  • 31 R. Gómez
  • 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
  • 21 S. Ramos Mingo
  • 66 J. de Lima Costa
  • 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
  • 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
  • 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
  • 11 R. Bertalia
  • 12 W. da Silva
  • 16 E. da Costa Farias
Substitutes
  • 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
  • 29 C. Soares
  • 36 K. Resende
  • 5 A. Gomes da Costa
  • 39 M. Cissé
  • 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
  • 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
  • 19 R. Carvalho
  • 17 I. Silveira Gomes
  • 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
  • 48 J. P. P. Lucrécio
  • 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
  • 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
  • 17 G. Herrera
  • 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
  • 23 M. Sanabria
  • 27 E. Stum
  • 15 M. Araújo Villar
  • 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
  • 25 I. Amaral Borduchi
  • 4 V. Soares dos Santos
  • 57 K. Furquim
  • 63 D. Martins Almeida de Lira

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