Match report →
Coritiba – Palmeiras1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
0.91
Total xG
2.25
Palmeiras
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Pedro Rocha not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| José Manuel López not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Allan not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Coritiba's attack has been strong recently, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
- Palmeiras' goal production is stagnant, averaging 1.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8
- Palmeiras boasts the league's best defense, conceding an average of just 0.72 goals per game
Risks
- Limited data availability for historical head-to-head matches
- Palmeiras travels without non-nominated key players José Manuel López and Allan
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba24%
Draw31%
Palmeiras45%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw55%
Palmeiras or draw76%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:1
12%
0:0
12%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Palmeiras with Jhon Arias: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Palmeiras 3-4-1-2
Coritiba
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 78 R. de Oliveira Junior
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 19 R. Sosa
Substitutes
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 11 L. Vieira Pires
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 20 M. da Silva França
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 21 K. Pereira Azarias
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
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