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Serie A

Coritiba - Palmeiras

07/22/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Coritiba
0.9
Total xG
2.2
Palmeiras
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:1

12%

0:0

12%

0:2

9%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
CORPAL

Coritiba

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-1.02
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Pedro Rocha not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.33
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.04
José Manuel López not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Allan not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Coritiba: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Palmeiras with Jhon Arias: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

31%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Coritiba's attack has been strong recently, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Palmeiras' goal production is stagnant, averaging 1.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Palmeiras boasts the league's best defense, conceding an average of just 0.72 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for historical head-to-head matches
  • Palmeiras travels without non-nominated key players JosĂ© Manuel LĂłpez and Allan
Overview

Coritiba hosts league leaders Palmeiras

Serie A match on July 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

The venue is EstĂĄdio Major AntĂŽnio Couto Pereira

Palmeiras leads the standings with 41 points

Coritiba sits in 7th place with 26 points

Form

Coritiba's recent form is inconsistent with LDWWL

Their last match ended in a loss to Flamengo

Palmeiras is undefeated in five games with the form DDDWW

The visitors won their last match against Chapecoense

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Palmeiras has a strong defense conceding only 0.72 goals per game

On the road the league leaders concede just 0.88 goals on average

Coritiba scores an average of 1.25 goals at home

Coritiba concedes 1.0 goals per game in home fixtures

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.75 goals away from home

Key Players

Breno Lopes has scored 8 goals this season

Josué has provided 7 assists in midfield

JoaquĂ­n Lavega has scored 5 goals this season

Andreas Pereira impressed with 10 assists this season

Gustavo GĂłmez scored 3 goals this season

Jhon Arias has 3 league goals

Goalkeepers

Carlos Miguel played 17 matches for Palmeiras

Pedro Rangel has 15 appearances for Coritiba

Palmeiras has kept 7 clean sheets

Coritiba recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass turf

Coritiba's home record stands at 1.25 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game

The venue stats show an average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches

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