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Botafogo – Santos2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
1.33
Total xG
2.40
Santos
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Arthur Cabral not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Álvaro Montoro not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 56% available) | ||
| Gabriel Barbosa not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Christian Oliva on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Bontempo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home attack vs away defensive struggles: Botafogo scores an average of 1.88 goals at home, while Santos concedes 2.12 goals per away game on average
- Tactical edge: Botafogo averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Statistical edge: The mathematical analysis estimates a 41% probability for a home win
Risks
- Arthur Cabral, Álvaro Montoro missing, only 57% of goal threat available for Botafogo
- Gabriel Barbosa, Christian Oliva, Gabriel Bontempo missing, only 69% of goal threat available for Santos
- Weak away defense: Santos concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo41%
Draw31%
Santos28%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw72%
Santos or draw59%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Botafogo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Botafogo: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Botafogo with Vitinho: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Santos: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Botafogo 4-4-2 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Botafogo
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 2 V. da Silva
- 34 E. Justino
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 13 A. Telles
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 6 C. Medina
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 79 L. Emanuel
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 18 I. de Souza
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 31 G. Escobar
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 30 M. Terceros
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 16 T. da Silva
Substitutes
- 37 K. Barria
- 1 R. Steffens
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 14 J. Barrera Herrera
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 23 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 26 A. Ciriano Oliveira
- 62 C. Lucas
- 38 V. Hugo
- 63 H. Garcia
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 25 G. Menino
- 49 G. Silva Bontempo
- 1 D. da Silva
- 7 R. de Souza Júnior
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 98 A. Frías
- 57 N. Maia da Silva de Souza
- 81 S. e Silva
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
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