Serie A
Botafogo - Santos
07/16/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Botafogo
Santos
The Lab
- 1Santos: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Botafogo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Botafogo: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Botafogo with Vitinho: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 5Santos: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
31%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Home attack vs away defensive struggles: Botafogo scores an average of 1.88 goals at home, while Santos concedes 2.12 goals per away game on average
- Tactical edge: Botafogo averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Statistical edge: The mathematical analysis estimates a 41% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
- Arthur Cabral, Ălvaro Montoro missing, only 57% of goal threat available for Botafogo
- Gabriel Barbosa, Christian Oliva, Gabriel Bontempo missing, only 69% of goal threat available for Santos
- Weak away defense: Santos concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game
Overview
Botafogo hosts Santos
Match on July 16, 2026, 10:30 PM
Serie A clash at the EstĂĄdio Nilton Santos
Botafogo sits in 12th place with 22 points
Santos occupies 15th position with 21 points
Form
Botafogo enters with the form LDWDL
They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses recently
Santos arrives with the form DWLLW
The visitors achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Botafogo's goal production is stalling compared to their season average
Statistics
Botafogo scores an average of 1.82 goals and concedes 1.82
Santos averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.61 conceded
Botafogo's home record stands at 1.88 goals scored on average
Santos concedes an average of 2.12 goals away from home
Both teams scored in 14 out of 17 matches for Botafogo
Head-to-Head
2 head-to-head matches in history
1 win for Botafogo and 1 draw
Santos is yet to win a match
The last direct encounter ended in a 2:2 draw
Key Players
Matheus Martins has recorded 4 goals in 15 appearances
Cristian Medina contributed 1 goal with an average rating of 6.82
Alex Telles has 2 goals and 2 assists from 15 matches
BenjamĂn Rollheiser has scored 3 goals in 14 matches, including 3 in his last 5 games
Ălvaro Barreal stands at 3 goals from 15 matches
Miguelito has registered 1 goal and 2 assists in 8 appearances
Goalkeepers
LĂ©o Linck starts in goal for Botafogo, having played 0 matches this season
Gabriel BrazĂŁo guards the net for Santos with 16 appearances
Botafogo has kept only 1 clean sheet this season
Santos recorded 4 clean sheets so far
Influences
The match takes place on natural grass at the EstĂĄdio Nilton Santos
Historically, an average of 3.8 goals are scored per match at this stadium
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games at this venue
Santos concedes an average of 2.12 goals in away games