🇧🇷

Serie A

Internacional - Cruzeiro

07/23/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Cruzeiro
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
INTCRU

Internacional

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Cruzeiro

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.56
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.00
Christian not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Lucas Romero not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Keny Arroyo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
KauĂŁ Moraes on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Kaiki not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 46% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Internacional: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Cruzeiro: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

31%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Only 47% of goal threat available, without Christian, Lucas Romero, Keny Arroyo, KauĂŁ Moraes, Kaiki
  • Internacional averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Away defense weakness: Cruzeiro concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Cruzeiro dominated possession recently with an average of 60.6%
  • Long break: Both teams have not played a competitive match in 53 days
  • Absence of Inter's starting goalkeeper Rochet weakens the defensive backup
Overview

Internacional (14th place, 21 points) host Cruzeiro (13th place, 24 points) at the Estadio Beira-Rio

Serie A fixture on July 23, 2026, 12:30 AM

Both teams are close to each other in the mid-table

The hosts aim to overtake Cruzeiro with a home win

Form

Internacional shows a mixed form with the sequence WDWLL

They recently suffered two consecutive losses against Bragantino and VitĂłria

Cruzeiro is more stable with the form LWDWD

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Fluminense

Statistics

Internacional scores 1.17 goals and concedes 1.22 goals per game on average

Cruzeiro is stronger offensively with 1.33 goals but concedes 1.56 goals

Away from home Cruzeiro concedes an average of 2.67 goals per match

The BTTS rate for Internacional is 10 out of 18 matches

Head-to-Head

In 4 direct matches Internacional has 2 home wins while Cruzeiro has 1 win

The last meeting was won by Cruzeiro 2-1 at home on August 23, 2025

Internacional historically dominated home matches against Cruzeiro

The total goal difference is 5-2 in favor of Internacional

Key Players

Johan Carbonero has scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists in his last 5 matches

Alexandro Bernabei shines in defense with 4 goals this season and a 7.22 rating

For Cruzeiro Matheus Pereira leads the midfield with a 7.4 rating

Goalkeepers

Anthoni plays in goal for the injured Rochet and has made 7 appearances so far

OtĂĄvio Costa guards the goal for Cruzeiro with 5 season appearances and a 6.5 rating

Both teams have kept 4 clean sheets each this season

Influences

Internacional holds home advantage at Estadio Beira-Rio conceding only 1.0 goals on average

The venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match in this stadium

The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 45%

A draw is predicted at 31%

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.