Match report →
Internacional – Cruzeiro1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Internacional
1.36
Total xG
2.30
Cruzeiro
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Internacional | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Christian not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Lucas Romero not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Keny Arroyo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kauã Moraes on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kaiki not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 47% of goal threat available, without Christian, Lucas Romero, Keny Arroyo, Kauã Moraes, Kaiki
- Internacional averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Away defense weakness: Cruzeiro concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
Risks
- Cruzeiro dominated possession recently with an average of 60.6%
- Long break: Both teams have not played a competitive match in 53 days
- Absence of Inter's starting goalkeeper Rochet weakens the defensive backup
All probabilities
Result
Internacional45%
Draw31%
Cruzeiro24%
Double chance
Internacional or draw76%
Cruzeiro or draw55%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional with Matheus Bahia: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Internacional: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Cruzeiro: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Internacional 4-4-2 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Internacional
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 25 G. Mercado
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 5 R. Villagra
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 27 G. Rojas
- 7 M. de Souza
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 77 G. Fortes Chaves
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 17 L. Sinisterra Lucumí
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Substitutes
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 14 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 8 B. Corsini
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 10 A. Lourenço
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 54 F. Prado
- 25 L. Villalba
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 22 N. Villareal
- 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 57 R. Lelis
- 40 R. Gabriel Rodrigues de Souza Silva
- 51 V. Lamounier Rego
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