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Serie A

São Paulo - Athletico PR

07/23/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
São Paulo
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Athletico PR
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
SPAP

São Paulo

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Ferreirinha on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Sabino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Athletico PR

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.03
Gastón Benavídez not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo with Sabino: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    São Paulo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Athletico PR: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Athletico PR with Renan Peixoto: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    São Paulo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

33%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Home defense vs away weakness: São Paulo concedes only 0.55 goals per home game on average, while Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.4 goals per away match
  • Historical superiority: São Paulo won both previous head-to-head encounters, including the last match which ended 2-1
  • Tactical activity: São Paulo showed offensive initiative recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
Risk Factors
  • Hosts' form crisis: São Paulo is winless in their last 5 matches with 3 defeats and 2 draws (DLLDL)
  • Away defensive weakness: Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.4 goals per away game
  • Missing key players: São Paulo is without Ferreirinha (4 goals), while Athletico PR misses key playmaker Gastón Benavídez
Overview

São Paulo (8th place, 25 points) hosts Athletico PR (5th place, 30 points) at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Serie A match on July 23, 2026, 1:30 AM

The mathematical model predicts a close game with a home win probability of 39%

Form

São Paulo is going through a weak phase with two draws and three losses in their last five games (DLLDL)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Athletico PR arrives with momentum after two consecutive wins (DLDWW)

Recently, the visitors' goal production has slowed down, averaging 1.0 goals per game compared to their seasonal average of 1.4

Statistics

São Paulo scores an average of 1.28 goals and concedes 1.11 goals per game this season

Their home defense is highly stable, conceding only 0.55 goals per home match

Athletico PR averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded

The visitors show defensive weaknesses away from home, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

São Paulo dominates the historical record between the two sides with two head-to-head matches

The hosts managed to win both previous encounters

The last meeting on November 10, 2024, ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo

The overall goal difference stands at 4-2 in favor of the home team

Key Players

Attacker Luciano leads São Paulo with 6 goals this season and is on a rising form trend

Jonathan Calleri has also scored 6 goals but is currently in a declining form phase

Defender Wendell supports the home team's defense and has registered 3 assists

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros shines with 11 goals in 17 appearances with rising form

Stiven Mendoza has scored 5 goals so far, while Lucas Esquivel contributed 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Rafael guards the goal for São Paulo with a season average rating of 6.77

He has already kept 4 clean sheets in the current campaign

Santos starts in goal for Athletico PR, averaging a rating of 6.81

The visiting goalkeeper has managed to keep 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage favors São Paulo, conceding only 0.55 goals per match in front of their fans

Matches at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo average 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at the home stadium

The match will be played on natural grass

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