Match report →
São Paulo – Athletico PR1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.19
Total xG
2.16
Athletico PR
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ferreirinha on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sabino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gastón Benavídez not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home defense vs away weakness: São Paulo concedes only 0.55 goals per home game on average, while Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.4 goals per away match
- Historical superiority: São Paulo won both previous head-to-head encounters, including the last match which ended 2-1
- Tactical activity: São Paulo showed offensive initiative recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
Risks
- Hosts' form crisis: São Paulo is winless in their last 5 matches with 3 defeats and 2 draws (DLLDL)
- Away defensive weakness: Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.4 goals per away game
- Missing key players: São Paulo is without Ferreirinha (4 goals), while Athletico PR misses key playmaker Gastón Benavídez
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo39%
Draw33%
Athletico PR28%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw72%
Athletico PR or draw61%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo with Sabino: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- São Paulo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Athletico PR: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Athletico PR with Renan Peixoto: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- São Paulo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
São Paulo 4-3-3 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 2 R. Tolói
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
- 9 J. Calleri
Athletico PR
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 31 C. Coronel
- 56 N. Bosshardt
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
- 53 I. da Silva
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 11 I. Rodrigues de Lima
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 42 M. Soares Rocha
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
- 26 C. de Jesus Passos
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
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