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Serie A

Vitória - Vasco da Gama

07/16/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vitória
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Vasco da Gama
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

11%

1:0

10%

1:2

7%
What influences the xG?
VITVDG

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.82
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.15
Matheuzinho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Vasco da Gama

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.50
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
Andrés Gómez on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 2
    Vasco da Gama with Carlos Cuesta: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vitória with Nathan Mendes: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

33%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Vitória's home defensive wall: Vitória conceded only 0.27 goals per home match, showing exceptional stability
  • Contrasting form trends: Vitória's attack is scoring more recently at 1.8 goals per match than their season average, while Vasco's production dropped to 0.8
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Vitória secured 6 clean sheets at home, while Vasco concede an average of 2.00 goals on the road
Risk Factors
  • Extremely long injury list for Vitória with 13 players missing, including the suspended C. de Jesus Gonçalves
  • Historical matchup favors the visitors, as Vasco da Gama won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters
Overview

Vitória host Vasco da Gama at the Estádio Manoel Barradas

Serie A match on July 16, 2026, 11:30 PM

Vitória currently sit in 13th place with 22 points, while Vasco da Gama occupy 17th place with 20 points

A crucial clash in the bottom half of the standings

Form

Vitória show a form of WDLWL with two wins and two losses recently

Vasco da Gama hold a form of DWLLL and lost their last three matches

The visitors travel with a negative run of three consecutive defeats

Vitória recorded two wins and one draw in their last five matches

Statistics

Vitória average 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded this season

Vasco da Gama average 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per match

Vitória's defense is particularly strong at home, conceding just 0.27 goals per game

In 11 home matches, Vitória kept 6 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

In 4 direct head-to-head matches, Vitória won once and Vasco da Gama claimed 3 victories

The historical goal record stands at 6:9 in favor of Vasco da Gama

The last encounter ended on October 5, 2025, with a 4-3 victory for Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama has been the dominant team in past encounters

Key Players

Renê shines in attack with 5 season goals, including 4 goals in the last five games

Erick contributed 2 goals and 4 assists in 16 appearances

Diego Tarzia scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 12 matches

Thiago Mendes excels in midfield with 3 season goals in 16 appearances

Cuiabano contributed 2 goals and 3 assists as a defender

José Luis Rodríguez recorded 2 goals and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Lucas Arcanjo made 13 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.99

Léo Jardim played 18 matches and kept 1 clean sheet

Lucas Arcanjo recorded 6 clean sheets in home matches

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Manoel Barradas

Vitória's home advantage is highlighted by a solid defense with only 3 goals conceded in 11 home games

Vitória concede an average of only 0.27 goals at home, whereas Vasco da Gama concede an average of 2 goals away

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