Match report →
Vitória – Vasco da Gama1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vitória
1.06
Total xG
2.17
Vasco da Gama
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.82 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Matheuzinho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Andrés Gómez on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Vitória's home defensive wall: Vitória conceded only 0.27 goals per home match, showing exceptional stability
- Contrasting form trends: Vitória's attack is scoring more recently at 1.8 goals per match than their season average, while Vasco's production dropped to 0.8
- Home strength vs away weakness: Vitória secured 6 clean sheets at home, while Vasco concede an average of 2.00 goals on the road
Risks
- Extremely long injury list for Vitória with 13 players missing, including the suspended C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- Historical matchup favors the visitors, as Vasco da Gama won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters
All probabilities
Result
Vitória32%
Draw33%
Vasco da Gama35%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
Vitória or draw65%
Vasco da Gama or draw68%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
11%
1:0
10%
1:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Vasco da Gama with Carlos Cuesta: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Vitória with Nathan Mendes: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Vitória 4-1-4-1 · Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 6 L. Martínez
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 10 J. Rojas Echavarría
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 77 C. Spinelli
Substitutes
- 79 R. de Souza
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 41 W. dos Santos Sacramento
- 2 E. Brítez
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 20 B. Souza da Silva
- 11 A. Gomez
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
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