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Serie A

Fluminense - Bragantino

07/17/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Fluminense
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Bragantino
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FLUBRA

Fluminense

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
John Kennedy on the bench (9 goals, 1 assists)
Guilherme Arana on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Nonato  on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
39% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Bragantino

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.18
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Isidro Pitta not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Juninho Capixaba not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Henry Mosquera on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Gabriel not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fluminense with Guga: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bragantino with Fernando : 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bragantino: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Fluminense: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Fluminense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Bragantino: Only 60% of usual goal threat is available, with key players like Isidro Pitta and Juninho Capixaba missing
  • Bragantino scored more in recent matches (2.0) than their season average (1.4), averaging 5.2 shots on target in past games
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Fluminense concede only 0.91 goals at home, while Bragantino concede an average of 1.67 away
Risk Factors
  • Fluminense's goal production is stalling, with only 1.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.56
  • Form discrepancy: Fluminense have won only one of their last five matches, while Bragantino won four of those games
Overview

Fluminense host Bragantino at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A clash on July 17, 2026, 11:00 PM

Fluminense sit 3rd with 31 points, just ahead of 5th-placed Bragantino with 29 points

Both teams are fighting to stay close to the top of the table

Form

Fluminense show inconsistent form with form string: LDWLD

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Cruzeiro

Bragantino travel with a strong form of WLWWW

The visitors have won three games in a row, most recently 3-1 against Internacional

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fluminense score an average of 1.56 goals per game this season

The hosts' defense concedes an average of 1.28 goals per match

Bragantino score an average of 1.39 goals and concede 1.06 goals per game

The visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals away, while Fluminense concede only 0.91 at home

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 home wins, 1 away win, and 1 draw

The goal difference in these matches is balanced at 7-7

In the last encounter on August 23, 2025, Bragantino won 4-2 at home

Fluminense won the last home meeting 2-1

Key Players

Luciano Acosta in midfield has recorded 3 goals and 4 assists in 14 matches

Jefferson Savarino contributes 3 goals and 2 assists

Kevin Serna has registered 1 goal and 1 assist in 18 games

For Bragantino, Lucas Barbosa stands out with 4 goals and 2 assists

Fernando has already scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist

Rodriguinho has scored 2 goals in 9 appearances

Goalkeepers

Fábio is in goal for Fluminense and has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Tiago Volpi guards the net for Bragantino

Bragantino have recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho sees an average of 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 encounters at this venue

Fluminense benefit from a solid home record, conceding only 0.91 goals per game

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