Match report →
Fluminense – Bragantino1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Fluminense
1.42
Total xG
2.56
Bragantino
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fluminense | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| John Kennedy on the bench (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Arana on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nonato on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 39% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Isidro Pitta not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Juninho Capixaba not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Henry Mosquera on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Gabriel not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 34% of goal output missing (only 60% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Bragantino: Only 60% of usual goal threat is available, with key players like Isidro Pitta and Juninho Capixaba missing
- Bragantino scored more in recent matches (2.0) than their season average (1.4), averaging 5.2 shots on target in past games
- Home strength vs away weakness: Fluminense concede only 0.91 goals at home, while Bragantino concede an average of 1.67 away
Risks
- Fluminense's goal production is stalling, with only 1.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.56
- Form discrepancy: Fluminense have won only one of their last five matches, while Bragantino won four of those games
All probabilities
Result
Fluminense42%
Draw30%
Bragantino29%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Fluminense or draw71%
Bragantino or draw58%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fluminense with Guga: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Bragantino with Fernando : 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Bragantino: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Fluminense: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Fluminense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Fluminense 4-2-3-1 · Bragantino 4-1-4-1
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 44 J. Ribeiro da Silva
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 32 L. Acosta
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 51 C. Nascimento Santos
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 32 J. Herrera
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
Substitutes
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 46 J. Lima Fidelis
- 9 J. Kennedy Batista de Souza
- 16 G. Santana
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 19 R. Castillo
- 22 J. Freytes
- 27 M. de Araújo Pitaluga Filho
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 14 G. Cano
- 57 M. Braz da Silva
- 14 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
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