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Serie A

Corinthians - Remo

07/23/2026, 10:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Corinthians
1.0
Total xG
1.8
Remo
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

12%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
CORREM

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-0.95
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 19, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Rodrigo Garro not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists)

Remo

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.58
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 13, 6 places gap)
-0.05
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Remo with Matheus Alexandre: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Corinthians with Dieguinho: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Remo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

36%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Midfield absence: Rodrigo Garro is suspended, leaving only 54% of usual assists and 81% of starting lineup strength available
  • Defensive gap: Corinthians concedes an average of only 0.89 goals at home, whereas Remo allows an average of 2.00 goals away
  • Tactical style: Corinthians recently played possession-dominant football with an average of 59% possession, while Remo on average relied on counter-attacks
Risk Factors
  • Lack of creativity: Due to the absence of Rodrigo Garro, Corinthians is missing 46% of their seasonal assists
  • Low goal expectation: The mathematical prediction sits at just 0.96 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.83 for Remo
  • Away defensive instability: Remo concedes a worrying average of 2.00 goals per away match
Overview

Corinthians (13th place, 24 points) host Remo (19th place, 18 points) at the Arena Corinthians

Serie A match on July 23, 2026, 10:30 PM

An important clash in the lower half of the table

Form

Corinthians shows a positive trend with a form of LWLWW and 3 wins from the last 5 matches

The home team averaged 1.8 goals per match recently

Remo visits with a form of WDWLW and also 3 wins

The visitors currently score more frequently with 1.6 goals per match than their season average

Statistics

Corinthians has scored 18 goals and conceded 19 so far this season

At home, their defense is more stable, conceding only 0.89 goals per match

Remo struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.00 goals

In 9 away matches, the visitors have kept only one clean sheet

Key Players

Yuri Alberto leads the hosts' attack with an average rating of 6.89

In midfield, André Luiz Santos Dias contributes 3 season goals

Matheus Bidu stabilizes the defense with a season average of 6.95

For the visitors, Alef Manga impresses with 4 goals and 3 assists

Jajá is in good form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeeper Marcelo Rangel shines with an average rating of 7.07

Goalkeepers

Hugo Souza plays in goal for Corinthians and has kept 7 clean sheets this season

Marcelo Rangel guards the goal for Remo and has kept 2 clean sheets so far

Influences

Arena Corinthians features natural grass, providing familiar conditions for the home side

In the previous 5 home matches, an average of 2 goals per game were scored

Home advantage for Corinthians is reflected in conceding only 0.89 goals per home match

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