Match report →
Corinthians – Remo3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
0.96
Total xG
1.79
Remo
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −0.95 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 13, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 19, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Rodrigo Garro not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Midfield absence: Rodrigo Garro is suspended, leaving only 54% of usual assists and 81% of starting lineup strength available
- Defensive gap: Corinthians concedes an average of only 0.89 goals at home, whereas Remo allows an average of 2.00 goals away
- Tactical style: Corinthians recently played possession-dominant football with an average of 59% possession, while Remo on average relied on counter-attacks
Risks
- Lack of creativity: Due to the absence of Rodrigo Garro, Corinthians is missing 46% of their seasonal assists
- Low goal expectation: The mathematical prediction sits at just 0.96 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.83 for Remo
- Away defensive instability: Remo concedes a worrying average of 2.00 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians36%
Draw36%
Remo28%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw72%
Remo or draw64%
No draw64%
Goals
Over 1.555%
Under 1.545%
Over 2.527%
Under 2.573%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
12%
2:0
8%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Remo with Matheus Alexandre: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Corinthians with Dieguinho: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
- Remo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Remo 4-4-2
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 52 Z. Labyad
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 28 J. da Silva
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
Substitutes
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 77 J. Lingard
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 80 A. Menezes Santana
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 14 L. Picco
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 4 M. Santos Nascimento
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
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