Match report →
Chapecoense – Flamengo0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Chapecoense
1.10
Total xG
2.68
Flamengo
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chapecoense | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.61 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 2, 18 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 20, 18 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Carvalheira not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jorge Carrascal not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Léo Ortiz not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table discrepancy: Second-placed Flamengo (34 points) faces bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense (9 points)
- Flamengo recently averaged 58% possession and created 5.2 shots on target per match
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Flamengo with a probability of 47%
Risks
- Limited historical data with no recent head-to-head records available
- Both attacks have stalled recently with scoring rates dropping below their season average
All probabilities
Result
Chapecoense25%
Draw28%
Flamengo47%
Double chance
Chapecoense or draw53%
Flamengo or draw75%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Chapecoense with Marcos Vinícius: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Flamengo with Luiz Araújo: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Chapecoense 4-3-2-1 · Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Chapecoense
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 17 V. Balieiro Lourenco de Carvalho
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 27 B. Pinto
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Substitutes
- 2 M. da Silva Santos
- 97 Ênio
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 33 B. dos Santos Covas
- 6 G. Piola Minozzo
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 1 R. de Carvalho Santos
- 18 A. Cordeiro Pessôa Neto
- 32 W. Felipe Pradeiczuk
- 50 K. d. S. d. Jesus
- 99 L. Pereira de Sousa
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 13 D. da Silva
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 64 W. de Souza Barreto
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 49 F. Bento Alves
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →