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Serie A

Chapecoense - Flamengo

07/23/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.1
Total xG
2.7
Flamengo
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CHAFLA

Chapecoense

Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 2, 18 places gap)
-0.20
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Carvalheira not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1 goals/match)

Flamengo

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.61
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.24
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 20, 18 places gap)
+0.11
Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Jorge Carrascal not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Léo Ortiz not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Chapecoense with Marcos Vinícius: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Flamengo with Luiz Araújo: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

28%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Table discrepancy: Second-placed Flamengo (34 points) faces bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense (9 points)
  • Flamengo recently averaged 58% possession and created 5.2 shots on target per match
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Flamengo with a probability of 47%
Risk Factors
  • Limited historical data with no recent head-to-head records available
  • Both attacks have stalled recently with scoring rates dropping below their season average
Overview

Chapecoense host Flamengo in Serie A

Match on July 23, 2026, 12:30 AM (UTC) at the Arena Condá

Chapecoense sit bottom of the table in 20th place with 9 points

Flamengo are in 2nd place with 34 points and aim for the top spot

Form

Chapecoense are winless in five games with a DLLLL form

Flamengo showed solid form with a DWDLW run

In their last games Chapecoense lost 0-2 to Bahia while Flamengo won 3-0 against Coritiba

Statistics

Chapecoense scored 17 goals and conceded 35 goals this season

Flamengo scored 31 goals and conceded 16 goals

At home Chapecoense score 0.93 goals and concede 1.43 goals on average

Flamengo score an average of 1.88 goals per away game

Key Players

Yannick Bolasie has 1 goal in 15 appearances for Chapecoense

Bruno Pacheco provided 3 assists in 10 games

Camilo has a 6.88 rating in 15 games played

For Flamengo Pedro is the top threat with 10 goals and 4 assists in 17 games

Samuel Lino recorded 4 goals and 6 assists in 17 matches

Jorginho added 2 goals in 11 midfield appearances

Not nominated: Carvalheira (2G/0A)

Not nominated: Guillermo Varela (0G/3A), Jorge Carrascal (2G/1A), Léo Ortiz (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Matheus played once in goal for Chapecoense with a 6.94 rating

Agustín Rossi started 17 games for Flamengo with a 7.01 rating

Flamengo kept 7 clean sheets while Chapecoense managed only 1 clean sheet

Influences

Arena Condá features a grass surface

Matches at this venue average 3.8 total goals

Both teams scored in 80% of the games played at this stadium

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