🇧🇷

Serie A

Grêmio - Fluminense

07/26/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Grêmio
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Fluminense
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
GRÊFLU

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.70
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.02
Gabriel Mec on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Fluminense

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap)
+0.07
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
+0.00
John Kennedy not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Jefferson Savarino on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Renê on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Nonato  on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fluminense with Guga: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Grêmio with Viery: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Grêmio: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Fluminense: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Grêmio: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Table disparity: Fluminense visit as 4th in the league while Grêmio struggle in 16th place
  • Tactical styles: Fluminense recently averaged 56.2% possession compared to Grêmio's 43.8%
  • Key absences for the visitors: Fluminense travel without John Kennedy and Jefferson Savarino
Risk Factors
  • Away vulnerability: Fluminense concede an average of 1.86 goals per away match
  • Statistical model: The mathematical projection gives Grêmio only a 28% probability of winning
  • Weakened visitor attack: Due to key absences Fluminense only have 83% of their usual goal threat available
Overview

Grêmio host Fluminense at the Arena do Grêmio

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 11:30 PM

The hosts are in 16th place with 21 points fighting relegation

Fluminense travel as 4th in the standings with 32 points chasing the top positions

Form

Grêmio show weak form with only one win in their last five matches

The hosts' recent form sequence is LDWLL

Fluminense are more stable on the road with the form sequence DWLDD

The visitors recently recorded two consecutive draws

Statistics

Grêmio average 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per match this season

Fluminense are more dangerous offensively with an average of 1.53 goals scored

However Fluminense concede an average of 1.86 goals on their travels

The hosts have been solid at home conceding just 0.79 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Fluminense dominate recent meetings with three wins out of the last five matches

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Fluminense

In total Fluminense scored seven goals while Grêmio found the net five times

Key Players

Grêmio rely on Carlos Vinícius who has already scored ten goals this season

Cristian Pavón impresses with three assists and a rating of 7.19

Marlon stabilizes the hosts' defense with a rating of 7.37

For Fluminense Luciano Acosta pulls the strings in midfield with three goals and four assists

Agustín Canobbio has contributed four goals and two assists

Kevin Serna brings threat on the wings with one goal and one assist

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Grando is set for his first appearance of the season for Grêmio

Fábio has played 19 matches for Fluminense with a rating of 6.86

Grêmio have recorded five clean sheets while Fluminense have kept three so far

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena do Grêmio

The hosts boast a strong defense at home conceding only 0.79 goals per game

The venue has averaged 2.2 goals per match this season

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.