Match report →
Grêmio – Fluminense1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
0.97
Total xG
2.17
Fluminense
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.70 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Mec on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| John Kennedy not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jefferson Savarino on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Renê on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Nonato on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table disparity: Fluminense visit as 4th in the league while Grêmio struggle in 16th place
- Tactical styles: Fluminense recently averaged 56.2% possession compared to Grêmio's 43.8%
- Key absences for the visitors: Fluminense travel without John Kennedy and Jefferson Savarino
Risks
- Away vulnerability: Fluminense concede an average of 1.86 goals per away match
- Statistical model: The mathematical projection gives Grêmio only a 28% probability of winning
- Weakened visitor attack: Due to key absences Fluminense only have 83% of their usual goal threat available
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio28%
Draw33%
Fluminense40%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw60%
Fluminense or draw72%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fluminense with Guga: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Grêmio with Viery: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Grêmio: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Fluminense: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Grêmio: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Grêmio 4-1-4-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Grêmio
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 7 C. Pavón
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 23 M. Rodrigues Xavier
- 19 E. Noriega
- 21 Tetê
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 5 J. Nardoni
- 9 F. Amuzu
- 95 C. Alves Morais
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 3 T. da Silva
- 22 J. Freytes
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 32 L. Acosta
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Substitutes
- 77 J. Borges Cabral
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
- 65 R. Freitas dos Santos
- 24 T. Stallbaum
- 43 L. Guedes de Souza
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 46 J. Lima Fidelis
- 16 G. Santana
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 2 S. Brito
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 27 M. de Araújo Pitaluga Filho
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 14 G. Cano
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
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