Match report →
Remo – Vitória2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Remo
1.07
Total xG
1.95
Vitória
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 11, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 19, 8 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Vitor Bueno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matheuzinho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage vs away weakness: Remo concede only 1.1 goals on average at home, whereas Vitória let in a disastrous 3.67 goals per away game
- Tactical edge: Vitória averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Remo's more defensive approach of only 2.0 shots on target
- Mathematical prediction: The model favors Remo with a 72% probability for a home win or draw
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Both teams face a tight schedule with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited offense for Remo: The hosts are highly counter-oriented, averaging just 42% possession in past matches
- Missing squad depth: Vitor Bueno is sidelined for Remo, while Vitória must play without Matheuzinho
All probabilities
Result
Remo37%
Draw35%
Vitória28%
Double chance
Remo or draw72%
Vitória or draw63%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.560%
Under 1.540%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória with Baralhas : 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vitória: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Vitória: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Vitória: 45% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 11)
Lineups
Remo 4-3-3 · Vitória 4-1-4-1
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 4 M. Santos Nascimento
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 28 J. da Silva
- 14 L. Picco
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Substitutes
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
- 70 F. de Souza Silva
- 79 R. de Souza
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 2 E. Brítez
- 8 T. Pochettino
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →