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Serie A

Remo - Vitória

07/26/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Remo
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Vitória
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
REMVIT

Remo

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.58
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 11, 8 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Vitor Bueno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.42
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 19, 8 places gap)
+0.03
Matheuzinho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória with Baralhas : 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vitória: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Vitória: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Vitória: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Vitória: 45% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

35%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage vs away weakness: Remo concede only 1.1 goals on average at home, whereas Vitória let in a disastrous 3.67 goals per away game
  • Tactical edge: Vitória averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Remo's more defensive approach of only 2.0 shots on target
  • Mathematical prediction: The model favors Remo with a 72% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams face a tight schedule with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited offense for Remo: The hosts are highly counter-oriented, averaging just 42% possession in past matches
  • Missing squad depth: Vitor Bueno is sidelined for Remo, while Vitória must play without Matheuzinho
Overview

Remo host Vitória at the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 10:30 PM

Remo fight against relegation in 19th place, while Vitória sit in mid-table in 11th place

Form

Remo show unstable form with two wins, one draw, and two losses lately

Their last game ended in a 0-3 defeat against Corinthians

Vitória has the identical record and recently played out a 0-0 draw against Botafogo

Form-string Remo: DWLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Form-string Vitória: LWLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Remo score 1.11 goals and concede 1.68 goals per game on average

At home, they perform better defensively, conceding only 1.1 goals on average

Vitória score 1.16 goals and concede 1.32 goals per match

Vitória has been extremely vulnerable away from home, conceding 3.67 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head match between the teams so far

Vitória won that game 2-0 at home in January 2026

Remo are still waiting for their first goal against this opponent

Key Players

Jajá is a key attacker for Remo with 4 goals this season

Alef Manga also contributed 4 goals and 3 assists

Yago Pikachu completes the offense with 2 goals and one assist

For Vitória, René is the biggest threat with 5 goals scored

Erick stands out with 2 goals and 4 assists

Diego Tarzia brings goal danger from midfield with 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Remo rely on Marcelo Rangel with a strong season rating of 7.07

Vitória trust Lucas Arcanjo, who played 14 games with a 6.98 rating

Vitória have kept 8 clean sheets, whereas Remo have managed 2 so far

Influences

At the Edgar Augusto Proença, matches average only 1.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of Remo's home games so far

Remo's home advantage could be boosted by Vitória's terrible away record of 3.67 goals conceded per game

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