Match report →
Santos – Chapecoense2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Santos
1.47
Total xG
2.30
Chapecoense
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +1.05 | |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.52 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.02 | |
| Miguelito on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bruno Pacheco on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marcinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Carvalheira not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 34% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Disastrous away defense: Chapecoense concedes an astronomical average of 3.75 goals per away game this season
- Extremely weakened squad for Chapecoense: Due to the absence of key regulars Bruno Pacheco, Marcinho, and Carvalheira, only 34% of the usual starting XI goal-threat strength is available
- Unequal recovery times: Chapecoense has had only 2 days of rest since their last match, compared to 9 days of preparation for Santos
Risks
- Guests' offensive blockage: According to advanced stats, Chapecoense's recent goal production has stalled at just 0.6 goals per game compared to their already low season average of 0.94
- Defensive flaws on both sides: Santos also shows vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.63 goals per game this season
- Restricted data availability regarding weather conditions for this match
All probabilities
Result
Santos51%
Draw30%
Chapecoense20%
Double chance
Santos or draw80%
Chapecoense or draw49%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Chapecoense with Jean Carlos: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Santos: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Santos with Igor Vinícius: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Santos 4-1-4-1 · Chapecoense 4-5-1
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 18 I. de Souza
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 31 G. Escobar
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 10 Neymar
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Chapecoense
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 20 B. Nunes de Barros
- 33 B. dos Santos Covas
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 12 Fernando
- 97 Ênio
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 22 M. Alves da Silva
- 94 K. Ramírez Dutra
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
Substitutes
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 25 G. Menino
- 7 R. de Souza Júnior
- 16 T. da Silva
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 98 A. Frías
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 81 S. e Silva
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 1 R. de Carvalho Santos
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 18 A. Cordeiro Pessôa Neto
- 17 V. Balieiro Lourenco de Carvalho
- 50 K. d. S. d. Jesus
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