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Serie A

Santos - Chapecoense

07/25/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Santos
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Chapecoense
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SANCHA

Santos

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.02
Miguelito on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+1.05
Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.52
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.10
Bruno Pacheco on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Marcinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Carvalheira not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 34% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Chapecoense with Jean Carlos: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Santos: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Santos with Igor Vinícius: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

30%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Disastrous away defense: Chapecoense concedes an astronomical average of 3.75 goals per away game this season
  • Extremely weakened squad for Chapecoense: Due to the absence of key regulars Bruno Pacheco, Marcinho, and Carvalheira, only 34% of the usual starting XI goal-threat strength is available
  • Unequal recovery times: Chapecoense has had only 2 days of rest since their last match, compared to 9 days of preparation for Santos
Risk Factors
  • Guests' offensive blockage: According to advanced stats, Chapecoense's recent goal production has stalled at just 0.6 goals per game compared to their already low season average of 0.94
  • Defensive flaws on both sides: Santos also shows vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.63 goals per game this season
  • Restricted data availability regarding weather conditions for this match
Overview

Santos hosts Chapecoense in Serie A

Match on July 25, 2026, 9:30 PM at Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Santos is in 15th place with 21 points

Chapecoense is bottom of the table in 20th place with 9 points

A crucial clash in the lower half of the standings

Form

Santos shows a form of WLLWL (2 wins, 3 losses)

Most recently, Santos lost 1-2 against Botafogo

Chapecoense has a form of LLLLL (5 consecutive losses)

Most recently, they lost 0-4 against Flamengo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santos scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 1.63 goals

At home, Santos concedes only 1.09 goals per game

Chapecoense scores an average of 0.89 goals and concedes 2.05

Away from home, Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.75 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Santos won the last game away 4-2 on January 28, 2026

The goal difference stands at 4-2 in favor of Santos

Key Players

Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals, 2 assists) and Neymar (4 goals, 2 assists) are in focus

Álvaro Barreal has scored 4 goals this season

Ênio scored 1 goal and holds a rating of 7.09

Yannick Bolasie recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

Defender Doma has scored 1 goal this season

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Brazão has played 17 games for Santos with a rating of 6.72

Matheus has played 2 games for Chapecoense with a rating of 6.58

Santos has kept 4 clean sheets this season, while Chapecoense has only 1

Influences

The match is played on grass at Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Santos shows solid defensive home stats, conceding only 1.09 goals per game

The venue has seen an average of 2.8 goals per match

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