Match report →
Bahia – Corinthians1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.29
Total xG
2.12
Corinthians
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.46 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Willian José on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Erick on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Matheus Bidu not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form trend and goal threat: Corinthians are offensively strong and currently score more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average of 1.3 goals
- Tactical dominance: Both teams recently played possession-dominant football, with Corinthians averaging 5.4 shots on target and Bahia averaging 5.2
- Mathematical favorites: The predictive model estimates a home win for Bahia with a 46% probability
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Corinthians enter this match with a short rest period of only 3 days since their last game
- Away vulnerability: Corinthians concede an average of 1.38 goals per away game
- Squad limitation for Bahia: Due to the absence of Willian José and Erick, only 72% of the usual starting eleven goal threat is available
All probabilities
Result
Bahia46%
Draw32%
Corinthians22%
Double chance
Bahia or draw78%
Corinthians or draw54%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:0
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- Bahia: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Bahia: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Corinthians with Dieguinho: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Bahia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Bahia 3-1-4-2 · Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 31 R. Gómez
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 26 F. Angileri
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
- 8 R. Garro
Substitutes
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 46 Luciano
- 17 G. Herrera
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 12 W. da Silva
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 57 K. Furquim
- 63 D. Martins Almeida de Lira
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 77 J. Lingard
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 52 Z. Labyad
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
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