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Serie A

Bahia - Corinthians

07/26/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Bahia
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Corinthians
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
BAHCOR

Bahia

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Willian José  on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Erick on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.27
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.08
Matheus Bidu not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Bahia: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Bahia: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 4
    Corinthians with Dieguinho: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Bahia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

32%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Form trend and goal threat: Corinthians are offensively strong and currently score more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average of 1.3 goals
  • Tactical dominance: Both teams recently played possession-dominant football, with Corinthians averaging 5.4 shots on target and Bahia averaging 5.2
  • Mathematical favorites: The predictive model estimates a home win for Bahia with a 46% probability
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Corinthians enter this match with a short rest period of only 3 days since their last game
  • Away vulnerability: Corinthians concede an average of 1.38 goals per away game
  • Squad limitation for Bahia: Due to the absence of Willian JosĂ© and Erick, only 72% of the usual starting eleven goal threat is available
Overview

Bahia host Corinthians at the Arena Fonte Nova

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 9:00 PM

Bahia currently sit in 6th place with 30 points

Corinthians follow closely in 7th place with 27 points

A direct duel for the upper table positions

Form

Bahia show solid form with a DLWWD record and 2 wins in their last 5 matches

Corinthians are in strong shape with a WLWWW record and 4 wins in their last 5 matches

The visitors travel with a 3-game winning streak

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Bahia average 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per match this season

Corinthians score an average of 1.11 goals and concede 1.00 goal

Bahia are defensively stable at home with only 0.91 goals conceded per match

Corinthians concede an average of 1.38 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia have 2 wins, Corinthians have 1 win, and 2 ended in draws

The last encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Bahia

Bahia scored 7 goals in total, while Corinthians scored 6 goals

Key Players

For Bahia, midfielder Rodrigo Nestor stands out with an average rating of 7.39 in the last 5 matches alongside attacker Ademir

Defender David Duarte shows stable performances with a 7.00 rating in recent games

For the visitors, midfielder Rodrigo Garro and attacker Kaio CĂ©sar shine

Striker Yuri Alberto is in rising form with a rating of 7.29 in his last 5 matches

Not nominated are Willian José and Erick for Bahia, and Matheus Bidu for Corinthians

Goalkeepers

Bahia goalkeeper Ronaldo has a solid season rating of 7.06

Corinthians keeper Hugo Souza holds an average season rating of 6.74

Corinthians have kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Bahia have kept 5 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on the natural grass of the Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia have benefited from home advantage, scoring an average of 1.45 goals per home match

The historic goal average at this stadium stands at 2.8 goals per match

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