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Serie A

Athletico PR - Internacional

07/25/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Internacional
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
APINT

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.47
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Gastón Benavídez on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)

Internacional

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.10
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 2
    Internacional: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Athletico PR: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Internacional with Alexandro Bernabei: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Athletico PR with Gastón Benavídez: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

32%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Athletico PR concede only 0.50 goals on average at home, while Internacional concede 1.44 goals away
  • Form gap: Athletico PR won their last three matches, while Internacional suffered three consecutive defeats
  • Tactical edge: Athletico PR averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Both teams enter this match with only two days of rest
  • Improved away attack: Internacional currently average more goals (1.6) than their season average (1.22)
  • Missing playmaker: Gastón Benavídez is absent from the home squad, leaving behind his 5 assists
Overview

Athletico PR host Internacional at the Arena de Baixada

Serie A match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

Third-placed Athletico PR (33 points) face 14th-placed Internacional (21 points)

Athletico PR aim to keep pace with the top, while Internacional seek crucial points

Form

Athletico PR are in strong form with three consecutive wins and a form of LDWWW

Internacional are struggling with three consecutive losses and a form of DWLLL

The hosts recently won 2-1 against São Paulo, while the visitors lost 1-2 to Cruzeiro

Statistics

Athletico PR score an average of 1.42 goals at home and concede only 0.50 goals

Internacional concede an average of 1.44 goals per away game

The home team has kept five clean sheets this season, including four at home

Head-to-Head

There are three head-to-head matches in the database

Athletico PR won two matches, and one ended in a draw

The last encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Athletico PR

Key Players

Kevin Viveros leads the home attack with 11 goals this season

Lucas Esquivel has contributed one goal and four assists from defense

Johan Carbonero remains a key threat for Internacional with 5 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Santos guards the goal for the home side with an average rating of 6.8

Anthoni represents the visitors in goal and has made eight appearances this season

Influences

Home advantage is a major factor given Athletico PR's strong home defense

Arena de Baixada features an average of 1.8 goals per match

Both teams must cope with a very short recovery period

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