Match report →
Athletico PR – Internacional2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Athletico PR
1.28
Total xG
2.09
Internacional
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletico PR | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Gastón Benavídez on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home strength vs away weakness: Athletico PR concede only 0.50 goals on average at home, while Internacional concede 1.44 goals away
- Form gap: Athletico PR won their last three matches, while Internacional suffered three consecutive defeats
- Tactical edge: Athletico PR averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- High workload: Both teams enter this match with only two days of rest
- Improved away attack: Internacional currently average more goals (1.6) than their season average (1.22)
- Missing playmaker: Gastón Benavídez is absent from the home squad, leaving behind his 5 assists
All probabilities
Result
Athletico PR46%
Draw32%
Internacional22%
Double chance
Athletico PR or draw78%
Internacional or draw54%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- Internacional: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Athletico PR: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Internacional with Alexandro Bernabei: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Athletico PR with Gastón Benavídez: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Athletico PR 3-4-2-1 · Internacional 3-4-2-1
Athletico PR
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 26 C. de Jesus Passos
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Internacional
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 5 R. Villagra
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Substitutes
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 11 I. Rodrigues de Lima
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 42 M. Soares Rocha
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 14 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 8 B. Corsini
- 25 G. Mercado
- 10 A. Lourenço
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 49 João Bezerra
- 46 P. Machado
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 54 F. Prado
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