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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Botafogo

07/26/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Cruzeiro
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Botafogo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CRUBOT

Cruzeiro

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Matheus Pereira not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Kaiki not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 55% available)

Botafogo

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.13
Lucas Villalba on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Botafogo with Edenilson: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Botafogo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Botafogo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Heavily weakened lineup: Cruzeiro is missing major impact with only 56% of their regular starting quality as key player Matheus Pereira is out with 4 goals and 2 assists
  • Tactical dominance: Cruzeiro recently controlled matches with an average of 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target
  • Botafogo's away attacking threat: The visitors have been highly effective away from home averaging 1.78 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Tight recovery window: Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Defensive vulnerability away: Botafogo struggles defensively on the road conceding an average of 2.11 goals per away match
  • Missing playmaker: Cruzeiro's creativity is severely limited without key midfielder Matheus Pereira
Overview

Cruzeiro (8th place, 27 points) host Botafogo (9th place, 26 points)

Serie A clash at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto on July 26, 2026, 8:00 PM

A tight mid-table battle with both teams aiming to close the gap to the top

Form

Cruzeiro is unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of WDWDW

Their last match was a 2-1 away victory against Internacional

Botafogo shows a solid run of form with WDLWD

They recently secured a 0-0 home draw against Vitória

Statistics

Cruzeiro averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game

Their defense is more stable at home conceding only 1.0 goals per match

Botafogo scores an average of 1.78 goals away but concedes 2.11 goals

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 15 out of 19 matches for Botafogo this season

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 direct meetings Cruzeiro won 3 matches while Botafogo won 1 with 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a clear 4-0 home victory for Botafogo on January 30, 2026

Key Players

Kaio Jorge shines for Cruzeiro with 5 goals and a rising form trend

Defender Fagner has already contributed 3 assists this season

Botafogo relies on Arthur Cabral who scored 7 goals this season including 4 in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Otávio Costa played in goal for Cruzeiro keeping 4 clean sheets this season

Botafogo kept 2 clean sheets this season with Warleson featured in goal

Influences

The match will be played on the natural grass surface of the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Cruzeiro is strong at home with a 16:12 goal difference and 3 clean sheets

Historical matches at this venue average 2.8 total goals per game

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