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Cruzeiro – Botafogo0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cruzeiro
1.41
Total xG
2.31
Botafogo
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruzeiro | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Matheus Pereira not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kaiki not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Lucas Villalba on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Heavily weakened lineup: Cruzeiro is missing major impact with only 56% of their regular starting quality as key player Matheus Pereira is out with 4 goals and 2 assists
- Tactical dominance: Cruzeiro recently controlled matches with an average of 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target
- Botafogo's away attacking threat: The visitors have been highly effective away from home averaging 1.78 goals per game
Risks
- Tight recovery window: Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Defensive vulnerability away: Botafogo struggles defensively on the road conceding an average of 2.11 goals per away match
- Missing playmaker: Cruzeiro's creativity is severely limited without key midfielder Matheus Pereira
All probabilities
Result
Cruzeiro47%
Draw30%
Botafogo22%
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw78%
Botafogo or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Botafogo with Edenilson: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Botafogo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Cruzeiro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Botafogo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Cruzeiro 4-4-2 · Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 27 G. Rojas
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 29 L. Romero
- 7 M. de Souza
- 17 L. Sinisterra Lucumí
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Botafogo
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 2 V. da Silva
- 34 E. Justino
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 13 A. Telles
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 6 C. Medina
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Substitutes
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 25 L. Villalba
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 57 R. Lelis
- 40 R. Gabriel Rodrigues de Souza Silva
- 51 V. Lamounier Rego
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
- 29 P. da Silva
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 37 K. Barria
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 14 J. Barrera Herrera
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 23 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 33 L. Monzón
- 79 L. Emanuel
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