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Serie A

Bragantino - Coritiba

07/26/2026, 09:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Bragantino
1.7
Total xG
2.4
Coritiba
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BRACOR

Bragantino

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.49
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.13
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
Isidro Pitta on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Henry Mosquera on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Gabriel on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Coritiba

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
Joaquín Lavega on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 1 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bragantino: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Bragantino with Rodriguinho: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Offensive strength: Bragantino averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Home form: Bragantino is strong at home with three consecutive wins recently
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis shows a solid 57% probability of a home win
Risk Factors
  • Squad depth: Bragantino has to cope with six injured or suspended players
  • Key absences: Bragantino are missing important offensive options like Isidro Pitta and Henry Mosquera
Overview

Bragantino host Coritiba at the Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 10:30 PM

Bragantino are in 5th place with 30 points

Coritiba occupy 10th place with 26 points

Form

Bragantino form: LWWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss recently

Coritiba form: DWWLL

2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Bragantino score an average of 1.33 goals at home and concede 0.75 goals

Coritiba score an average of 1.27 goals away and concede 1.45 goals

Bragantino kept 6 clean sheets this season

Coritiba recorded 5 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match recorded

Coritiba won the last match 1-0 on January 28, 2026

No draws in the head-to-head history

Key Players

Lucas Barbosa scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists for Bragantino

Juninho Capixaba holds an average rating of 7.20 in defense

Breno Lopes is Coritiba's top scorer with 8 goals

Josué contributes with 8 assists in midfield

Goalkeepers

Tiago Volpi is in goal for Bragantino with a rating of 7.15

Pedro Rangel plays for Coritiba with an average rating of 6.88

Bragantino kept 6 clean sheets compared to Coritiba's 5

Influences

Played on grass at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques

Venue average is 3.2 goals per match

Bragantino show home strength conceding only 0.75 goals per game

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