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Bragantino – Coritiba0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Bragantino
1.65
Total xG
2.42
Coritiba
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bragantino | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Isidro Pitta on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Henry Mosquera on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Gabriel on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Lavega on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive strength: Bragantino averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Home form: Bragantino is strong at home with three consecutive wins recently
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis shows a solid 57% probability of a home win
Risks
- Squad depth: Bragantino has to cope with six injured or suspended players
- Key absences: Bragantino are missing important offensive options like Isidro Pitta and Henry Mosquera
All probabilities
Result
Bragantino57%
Draw27%
Coritiba16%
Double chance
Bragantino or draw84%
Coritiba or draw43%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 1 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Bragantino: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Bragantino with Rodriguinho: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Bragantino 4-2-3-1 · Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 32 J. Herrera
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
Coritiba
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 23 T. Coiser
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 11 L. Vieira Pires
Substitutes
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 14 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 52 R. da Silva
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 39 G. Silva de Oliveira
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 20 M. da Silva França
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
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