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Serie A

Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro

07/26/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Palmeiras
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Atlético Mineiro
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PALAM

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.75
Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
José Manuel López not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Allan not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Ramón Sosa not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Atlético Mineiro

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.00
Tomás Cuello not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Mineiro with Victor Hugo: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Palmeiras with Mauricio: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

33%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Standings and form gap: League leaders Palmeiras are unbeaten in 5 games (DDWWW) while Atlético Mineiro sits in 13th place
  • Home strength vs away defensive struggles: Palmeiras concedes only 0.67 goals per home match, whereas the visitors concede 1.57 goals on average away
  • Historical dominance: Palmeiras has dominated the last 5 direct meetings with 4 wins and 1 draw
Risk Factors
  • Absence of top scorer: Palmeiras is without José Manuel López (6 goals) due to injury
  • Key offensive absence: Atlético Mineiro lacks Tomás Cuello due to a thigh muscle strain
  • Tight mathematical margin: The model predicts a 33% chance of a draw with low expected goals of 1.20 to 0.82
Overview

Palmeiras (1st place, 44 points) vs Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 25 points)

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 11:30 PM at Allianz Parque

The league leaders host the struggling mid-table visitors

Form

Palmeiras is in strong form with DDWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws

Atlético Mineiro arrives with the form DWLWD

The visitors recently recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.74 goals per game this season and concedes 0.74

In home games, their average is 1.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded

Atlético Mineiro has a season average of 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded

In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 1.57 goals

Palmeiras kept 7 clean sheets, while Atlético Mineiro failed to score in 7 matches

Head-to-Head

Historical dominance for Palmeiras in the last 5 head-to-head matches

The home side claimed 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 14 goals and conceding 5

The last encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Andreas Pereira impresses with 10 assists and a season rating of 7.24

Mauricio is on a rising trend with 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Jhon Arias shows strong performances with a 7.42 rating in recent games

Not nominated for the home team: José Manuel López (6G/3A), Allan (4G/2A), Ramón Sosa (3G/2A)

Bernard delivered 3 assists in his last 5 appearances

Mateo Cassierra scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Maycon contributed 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Not nominated for the away team: Tomás Cuello (2G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Carlos Miguel played in 18 matches and recorded 7 clean sheets

On the other side, Everson completed 19 matches and achieved 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

Allianz Parque features a natural grass pitch

In this stadium, matches average 1.8 goals per game

Palmeiras' home record of 1.78 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded points to a strong home advantage

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