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Palmeiras – Atlético Mineiro1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Palmeiras
1.20
Total xG
2.03
Atlético Mineiro
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Palmeiras | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.75 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.67 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| José Manuel López not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Allan not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ramón Sosa not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Tomás Cuello not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Standings and form gap: League leaders Palmeiras are unbeaten in 5 games (DDWWW) while Atlético Mineiro sits in 13th place
- Home strength vs away defensive struggles: Palmeiras concedes only 0.67 goals per home match, whereas the visitors concede 1.57 goals on average away
- Historical dominance: Palmeiras has dominated the last 5 direct meetings with 4 wins and 1 draw
Risks
- Absence of top scorer: Palmeiras is without José Manuel López (6 goals) due to injury
- Key offensive absence: Atlético Mineiro lacks Tomás Cuello due to a thigh muscle strain
- Tight mathematical margin: The model predicts a 33% chance of a draw with low expected goals of 1.20 to 0.82
All probabilities
Result
Palmeiras43%
Draw33%
Atlético Mineiro24%
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw76%
Atlético Mineiro or draw57%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Mineiro with Victor Hugo: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Palmeiras with Mauricio: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 · Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 4 A. Giay
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 10 P. Sampaio Filho
Atlético Mineiro
- 22 E. Marques Pires
- 2 Natanael
- 4 R. Tressoldi Netto
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 25 T. Pérez
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
Substitutes
- 21 K. Pereira Azarias
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
- 27 A. Minda García
- 3 I. Román
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 29 C. Soares
- 36 K. Resende
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
- 48 J. P. P. Lucrécio
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