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Vasco da Gama – Mirassol1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vasco da Gama
1.80
Total xG
3.05
Mirassol
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vasco da Gama | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.50 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Thiago Mendes on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nuno Moreira on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Willian Machado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Shaylon on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Carlos Eduardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Dominant style: Vasco da Gama average 56.2% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
- H2H history: Mirassol won all 3 previous encounters against Vasco da Gama
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 49% home win probability and 1.80 expected goals for Vasco
Risks
- Squad impact for Mirassol: Alesson, Willian Machado, Shaylon and Carlos Eduardo are missing, leaving only 69% of goal-scoring threat active
- Away defensive struggles: Mirassol concede 2.17 goals per away game
- Form dip: Vasco da Gama have lost four consecutive league matches
All probabilities
Result
Vasco da Gama49%
Draw26%
Mirassol25%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw75%
Mirassol or draw51%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama with Carlos Cuesta: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Mirassol with Eduardo : 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1 · Mirassol 4-3-3
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
- 11 A. Gomez
- 77 C. Spinelli
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 6 R. da Silva
- 8 Denilson
- 21 J. Soares de Oliveira Filho
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
Substitutes
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 10 J. Rojas Echavarría
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 60 J. Silva
- 29 P. Alves Ibelli
- 27 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
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