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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Mirassol

07/25/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Vasco da Gama
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Mirassol
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VDGMIR

Vasco da Gama

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.50
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.23
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.05
Thiago Mendes  on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Nuno Moreira on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Mirassol

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.03
Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Willian Machado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Shaylon on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Carlos Eduardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama with Carlos Cuesta: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Mirassol with Eduardo : 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Dominant style: Vasco da Gama average 56.2% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • H2H history: Mirassol won all 3 previous encounters against Vasco da Gama
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 49% home win probability and 1.80 expected goals for Vasco
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact for Mirassol: Alesson, Willian Machado, Shaylon and Carlos Eduardo are missing, leaving only 69% of goal-scoring threat active
  • Away defensive struggles: Mirassol concede 2.17 goals per away game
  • Form dip: Vasco da Gama have lost four consecutive league matches
Overview

Vasco da Gama host Mirassol

Serie A relegation battle on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

Vasco da Gama sit 17th with 20 points, Mirassol follow in 18th with 19 points

Form

Vasco da Gama have a form of WLLLL with four consecutive losses

Mirassol show a form of DLWLW and won their last match 2-1 against GrĂȘmio

Vasco lost their most recent match 0-1 against VitĂłria

Form-String Key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Vasco da Gama score an average of 1.16 goals and concede 1.58 goals per match

Mirassol average 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded

Mirassol concede an average of 2.17 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

Three head-to-head matches with three wins for Mirassol

Goal difference of 3-7 against Vasco da Gama

The last meeting on January 29, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Mirassol

Key Players

José Luis Rodríguez with 2 goals and 4 assists and a rating of 7.2

Cuiabano with 2 goals and 3 assists and a rating of 7.26

Cauan Barros with 3 goals this season

Igor Formiga registered 3 goals and 1 assist

Denilson with 1 goal and 1 assist

Edson Carioca scored 2 goals this season

Not nominated for Vasco da Gama: Thiago Mendes and Nuno Moreira

Goalkeepers

LĂ©o Jardim played 19 matches with a 6.73 rating and one clean sheet

Walter played 18 matches with a 6.8 rating and one clean sheet

Influences

Home advantage at EstĂĄdio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama on grass

Vasco score 1.2 goals and concede 1.3 goals on average at home

Stadium stats show 2.2 average goals per game and 40% BTTS rate

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