Match report →
Flamengo – São Paulo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.51
Total xG
2.46
São Paulo
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jorge Carrascal not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Léo Ortiz not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ferreirinha on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Damián Bobadilla on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sabino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- 1. Home strength vs away weakness: Flamengo averages 2.0 goals scored at home, while São Paulo concedes 2.0 goals on average away
- 2. Form discrepancy: Flamengo is stable (WDLWW, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) whereas São Paulo is winless in their last five matches (LLDLL)
- 3. Tactical dominance: Flamengo controls matches with an average of 61% possession and generates 5.2 shots on target per game
Risks
- 1. Personnel absences: São Paulo must play without the offensive threat of Ferreirinha (4 goals) as well as Damián Bobadilla and Sabino
- 2. Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this matchup with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive game
- 3. Head-to-head history: The most recent direct encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo49%
Draw29%
São Paulo22%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw78%
São Paulo or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- São Paulo: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- São Paulo with Luciano: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Flamengo with Guillermo Varela: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Flamengo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · São Paulo 4-4-2
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 4 L. Pereira
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 99 L. Pereira de Sousa
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 27 B. Pinto
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
- 9 J. Calleri
Substitutes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 13 D. da Silva
- 64 W. de Souza Barreto
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 79 C. Lana de Andrade
- 20 A. Ulineia Buta
- 31 C. Coronel
- 56 N. Bosshardt
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
- 53 I. da Silva
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