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Serie A

Flamengo - São Paulo

07/26/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.5
Total xG
2.5
São Paulo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
FLASP

Flamengo

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Guillermo Varela on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Jorge Carrascal not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Léo Ortiz not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

São Paulo

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.05
Ferreirinha on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Damián Bobadilla on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Sabino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    São Paulo: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    São Paulo with Luciano: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Flamengo with Guillermo Varela: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Flamengo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

29%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • 1. Home strength vs away weakness: Flamengo averages 2.0 goals scored at home, while São Paulo concedes 2.0 goals on average away
  • 2. Form discrepancy: Flamengo is stable (WDLWW, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) whereas São Paulo is winless in their last five matches (LLDLL)
  • 3. Tactical dominance: Flamengo controls matches with an average of 61% possession and generates 5.2 shots on target per game
Risk Factors
  • 1. Personnel absences: São Paulo must play without the offensive threat of Ferreirinha (4 goals) as well as Damián Bobadilla and Sabino
  • 2. Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this matchup with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive game
  • 3. Head-to-head history: The most recent direct encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo
Overview

Flamengo (2nd place, 37 points) host São Paulo (12th place, 25 points) at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 9:30 PM

The hosts aim to close the gap on league leaders Palmeiras

Form

Flamengo shows stable form with a WDLWW record

Most recently they secured a dominant 4-0 away victory against Chapecoense

São Paulo is in a downward trend with a LLDLL record

The visitors recently suffered a 1-2 home defeat against Athletico PR

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Flamengo averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded in home matches

São Paulo struggles on the road conceding an average of 2.0 goals while scoring 1.29

Flamengo has kept 8 clean sheets this season compared to São Paulo's 4

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches both teams have recorded 2 wins each alongside 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 7:6 in favor of Flamengo

The last encounter on January 29, 2026 ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo

Key Players

Pedro leads the attack with 12 goals and 4 assists

Samuel Lino impresses with 4 goals and 7 assists this season

Jorginho solidifies the midfield and has contributed 2 goals

Goalkeepers

Agustín Rossi guards the net for Flamengo with 8 clean sheets this season

Rafael starts for São Paulo and has recorded 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

This venue historically averages 3.8 goals per match

Flamengo benefits from a strong home advantage averaging 2 goals per home game

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