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Serie A

Coritiba - Cruzeiro

07/31/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Coritiba
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Cruzeiro
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CORCRU

Coritiba

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.51
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.13
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Joaquín Lavega on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 99% available)

Cruzeiro

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Fagner not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Kaiki not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Coritiba with Sebastián Gómez : 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Cruzeiro with Matheus Pereira: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Attacking trend: Coritiba currently scores more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.3), while Cruzeiro's scoring has slowed down to 1.2 goals compared to their season average (1.4)
  • Away defensive struggles: Cruzeiro concedes a high average of 2.12 goals per away game this season
  • Tactical contrast: Cruzeiro averaged 59% possession in recent matches, meeting a counter-oriented Coritiba side that averaged 4.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Tight mathematical prediction: The model calculates a very close distribution of 31% home win, 30% draw, and 39% away win
  • Massive squad absences for visitors: Cruzeiro travels with a list of 8 injured or suspended players
  • Away defensive risk: Cruzeiro kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 away games, indicating significant instability
Overview

Coritiba hosts Cruzeiro at the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Serie A match on July 31, 2026, 2:30 AM

Both teams are tied with 27 points in 10th and 11th place

A direct battle in the mid-table

Form

Coritiba has a form of WWLLD

Their last match ended in a 0-0 away draw against Bragantino

Cruzeiro travels with a form of DWDWL

Their last match ended in a 0-1 home loss against Botafogo

Form-Strings code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Coritiba scores an average of 1.25 goals per game and concedes 1.35

Cruzeiro averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match

Cruzeiro's defense is particularly vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.12 goals

Coritiba has a balanced home record of 1.22 goals scored and conceded per game

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match recorded

Coritiba won that match 2-1 away on February 6, 2026

Key Players

Breno Lopes has already scored 8 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Josué shines in midfield with 1 goal and 8 assists this season

Pedro Rocha has contributed 4 goals and 1 assist so far

Matheus Pereira stands out with 4 goals and 2 assists

Kaio Jorge scored 5 goals in 14 appearances

Keny Arroyo recorded 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Pedro Morisco is in goal for Coritiba with a season average rating of 7.32

Otávio Costa guards Cruzeiro's goal with a rating of 6.6

Coritiba kept 6 clean sheets this season, while Cruzeiro kept 4

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Coritiba benefits from home support, whereas Cruzeiro struggles on the road

The venue history shows an average of 3.4 goals per match with an 80% BTTS rate

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