Match report →
Coritiba – Cruzeiro0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.17
Total xG
2.51
Cruzeiro
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.51 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Joaquín Lavega on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 99% available) | ||
| Fagner not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Kaiki not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Attacking trend: Coritiba currently scores more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.3), while Cruzeiro's scoring has slowed down to 1.2 goals compared to their season average (1.4)
- Away defensive struggles: Cruzeiro concedes a high average of 2.12 goals per away game this season
- Tactical contrast: Cruzeiro averaged 59% possession in recent matches, meeting a counter-oriented Coritiba side that averaged 4.6 shots on target
Risks
- Tight mathematical prediction: The model calculates a very close distribution of 31% home win, 30% draw, and 39% away win
- Massive squad absences for visitors: Cruzeiro travels with a list of 8 injured or suspended players
- Away defensive risk: Cruzeiro kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 away games, indicating significant instability
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba31%
Draw30%
Cruzeiro39%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw61%
Cruzeiro or draw69%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba with Sebastián Gómez : 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Cruzeiro with Matheus Pereira: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 23 T. Coiser
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 11 L. Vieira Pires
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 27 G. Rojas
- 29 L. Romero
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Substitutes
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 88 F. Pereira do Nascimento
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 20 M. da Silva França
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 25 L. Villalba
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 70 K. Takamura Correa
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 7 M. de Souza
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 57 R. Lelis
- 40 R. Gabriel Rodrigues de Souza Silva
- 51 V. Lamounier Rego
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →