Serie A
Atlético Mineiro - Bragantino
10/03/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.7
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%The Lab
- 1Atlético Mineiro: 39% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 18)
- 2Tomás Cuello: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- 3Bragantino: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
28%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Favorites role for the home team with a calculated win probability of 49%
- Atlético Mineiro averaged a strong 6.2 shots on target per match recently
- Bragantino conceded an average of 1.55 goals per game in recent away matches
Risk Factors
- Isidro Pitta, Lucas Barbosa, Rodriguinho, José Herrera are missing, only 58% of goal threat available
- Bragantino recently conceded more goals on average (1.6) than their season average (1.15)
Overview
Atlético Mineiro (8th place, 40 points) host Bragantino (10th place, 36 points) at the Arena MRV
Serie A match on October 3, 2026, 9:30 PM
A mid-table clash with both teams fighting for international spots
Form
Atlético Mineiro shows stable form with a DWLWD record
Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Chapecoense
Bragantino won only once in their last five matches with a WLLDL form
The visitors travel after a 1-2 defeat against Flamengo
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.19 goals per match
Their home record stands at 1.35 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game
Bragantino averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded
In away matches, Bragantino concedes an average of 1.55 goals
The home team has kept six clean sheets this season, while Bragantino has kept eight
Head-to-Head
Five head-to-head matches in recent years
Atlético Mineiro leads with three wins to two losses
The last encounter ended with a 1-0 win for Bragantino on February 4, 2026
A total of 12 goals were scored in these five matches
Key Players
Tomás Cuello has recorded 5 goals, 2 assists, and a 7.12 rating this season
Reinier contributes 4 goals, 2 assists, and shows a rising trend with a 7.54 rating recently
Bernard has registered 2 goals and 4 assists during this campaign
Juninho Capixaba stands at 3 goals, 2 assists, and a season rating of 7.10
Fernando has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist with a rating of 6.96
Goalkeeper Tiago Volpi has also contributed 2 goals this season alongside his defensive duties
Goalkeepers
Gabriel Delfim played 4 matches this season with an average rating of 6.51
Tiago Volpi appeared in 20 games, reached a 7.08 rating, and has already scored 2 goals
Atlético Mineiro has kept 6 clean sheets, while Bragantino recorded 8 clean sheets so far
Influences
The Arena MRV averages 2.8 total goals per match in recent games
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches
Atlético Mineiro scores 1.35 goals and concedes 0.94 goals on average at home
Bragantino averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded when playing away