Match report →
Internacional – Flamengo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Internacional
1.00
Total xG
2.39
Flamengo
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Internacional | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.57x league average) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Alerrandro on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Bruno Henrique on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Léo Ortiz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Flamengo's offensive strength averaging 1.89 goals per game faces a vulnerable host defense
- The form trend is highly critical for Internacional with four consecutive losses and a WLLLL record
- Tactical dominance by Flamengo who averaged 5.4 shots on target and 58.2% possession recently
Risks
- Flamengo face a tight schedule with only 3 days since their last match
- Internacional starting goalkeeper Matheus Cunha lacks match practice this season
- Missing attacking assets like Alerrandro with 3 goals and 3 assists weaken the home side
All probabilities
Result
Internacional26%
Draw30%
Flamengo44%
Double chance
Internacional or draw56%
Flamengo or draw74%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
11%
0:0
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Internacional with Rafael Borré: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Internacional: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Flamengo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Internacional 3-4-2-1 · Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Internacional
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 25 G. Mercado
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 5 R. Villagra
- 8 B. Corsini
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 10 A. Lourenço
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 4 L. Pereira
- 26 A. Lobo Silva
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Substitutes
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 14 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 49 João Bezerra
- 46 P. Machado
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 99 L. Pereira de Sousa
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 13 D. da Silva
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 64 W. de Souza Barreto
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 27 B. Pinto
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
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