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Serie A

Internacional - Flamengo

07/29/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Flamengo
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
INTFLA

Internacional

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap)
-0.16
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Alerrandro on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Flamengo

Attack strength (1.57x league average)
+0.24
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
Bruno Henrique  on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Léo Ortiz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Internacional with Rafael Borré: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Internacional: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Flamengo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

30%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Flamengo's offensive strength averaging 1.89 goals per game faces a vulnerable host defense
  • The form trend is highly critical for Internacional with four consecutive losses and a WLLLL record
  • Tactical dominance by Flamengo who averaged 5.4 shots on target and 58.2% possession recently
Risk Factors
  • Flamengo face a tight schedule with only 3 days since their last match
  • Internacional starting goalkeeper Matheus Cunha lacks match practice this season
  • Missing attacking assets like Alerrandro with 3 goals and 3 assists weaken the home side
Overview

Internacional host Flamengo at Estadio Beira-Rio

Brazilian Serie A match on July 29, 2026, 10:30 PM

The hosts sit in 16th place with 21 points

Flamengo enter as favorites in 2nd place with 38 points

Form

Internacional show weak form with a WLLLL record

The hosts suffered four consecutive defeats recently

Flamengo present a stronger form line of DLWWD

The visitors recorded two wins and two draws in their last five matches

Statistics

Flamengo score an average of 1.9 goals per away game

The visitors concede only 0.9 goals on average on the road

Internacional score an average of 1.09 goals per home match

The historical average at Estadio Beira-Rio stands at 2.6 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Flamengo won 2 games while Internacional recorded 0 wins

Three direct encounters ended in a draw

The most recent duel ended in a 1:1 stalemate

Key Players

Johan Carbonero is Internacional's top scorer with 5 season goals

Alexandro Bernabei stands out as a goalscoring defender with 4 goals

Pedro leads Flamengo with an impressive 12 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Matheus Cunha starts in goal for Internacional with 0 season appearances so far

Agustín Rossi guards the net for Flamengo and kept 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage gives Internacional an average of 1.09 goals scored per game

Flamengo exhibit away strength with 1.9 goals scored per match on average

The historical BTTS rate at Beira-Rio is high at 60%

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