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Serie A

São Paulo - Santos

10/02/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
São Paulo
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Santos
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SPSAN

São Paulo

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Sabino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Santos

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Gabriel Bontempo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    São Paulo: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    São Paulo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

  • 4
    Santos: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Santos: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Santos form momentum: The away side arrives on a run of four consecutive victories (DWWWW), while São Paulo's attack has stalled
  • São Paulo home fortress: Conceding just 0.56 goals per home match, the hosts possess an incredibly reliable defense at home
  • Offensive presence: Santos averaged 5.4 shots on target recently and is scoring more frequently than its season average
Risk Factors
  • The suspension of top scorer J. Calleri significantly weakens São Paulo's attacking threat
  • Santos will miss injured Neymar as well as the suspended duo L. Peres Petroni and G. Silva Bontempo
  • A low-scoring match is highly anticipated as the mathematical model estimates a mere 40% probability for Over 2.5 goals
Overview

São Paulo (11th place, 36 points) host Santos (8th place, 38 points) at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Serie A match on October 3, 2026, 1:00 AM

A mid-table clash separated by only two points

Form

São Paulo with mixed results recently, securing three wins in their last five matches (LWWLW)

Santos is in excellent shape with four consecutive wins (DWWWW)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

São Paulo average 1.19 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded per match

Outstanding home defense with only 0.56 goals conceded per home game

Santos are strong offensively, averaging 1.52 goals scored per game

Santos have conceded 40 goals in 27 games this season

Head-to-Head

Even record in the last three meetings with one win for each side and one draw

Goal difference is tied at 3:3 in these head-to-head duels

The last duel on February 4, 2026 ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Luciano (8 goals, 2 assists), Artur (2 goals, 2 assists) and Marcos Antônio (1 goal, 2 assists)

Gabriel Barbosa (11 goals, 3 assists), Álvaro Barreal (5 goals, 1 assist) and Benjamín Rollheiser (4 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Rafael has keeping 6 clean sheets for São Paulo with a 6.76 average rating

Diógenes has a 6.62 rating this season for Santos

Influences

Strong home advantage for São Paulo with only 10 goals conceded in 18 home matches

The Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo averages 2.2 total goals per game

The match is played on grass

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