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Serie A

Corinthians - Athletico PR

07/30/2026, 10:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Corinthians
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Athletico PR
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
CORAP

Corinthians

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.89
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Rodrigo Garro on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Yuri Alberto on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
André Luiz Santos Dias on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Breno Bidon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Kaio CĂ©sar on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Matheus Bidu not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
72% of goal output missing (only 32% available)

Athletico PR

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletico PR: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Athletico PR with Felipinho: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Corinthians with Zakaria Labyad: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

36%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad selection: Corinthians must play without key figures like Rodrigo Garro and Yuri Alberto, leaving them with only 33% of their usual starting lineup strength
  • Form peak: Athletico PR are unbeaten in 5 matches and won each of their last 4 games
  • Recent scoring trend: Corinthians are currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Defensive away weakness: Athletico PR concede an average of 2.17 goals per away match
  • Tight match prediction: The model projects a highly balanced match with a 30% home win, 36% draw, and 33% away win chance
Overview

Corinthians host Athletico PR at the Arena Corinthians

Serie A match on July 30, 2026, 11:30 PM

Third-placed Athletico PR with 36 points challenge ninth-placed Corinthians with 28 points

Form

Corinthians show a form of LWWWD with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Athletico PR arrive with a form of DWWWW following 4 consecutive wins

Both teams are in stable shape heading into this fixture

Statistics

Corinthians average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per match

The visitors from Curitiba are more clinical with an average of 1.4 goals per game

At home, Corinthians concede only 0.73 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Corinthians recorded 2 home wins and 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Corinthians

Athletico PR have yet to win a match against today's hosts

Key Players

Zakaria Labyad has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists this season

Matheuzinho has been strong defensively with a rising form trend and a 7.27 rating in recent matches

Kevin Viveros is the most dangerous attacker for Athletico PR with 12 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Hugo Souza guards the goal for Corinthians with 8 clean sheets this season

Santos is in goal for Athletico PR and kept 6 clean sheets so far

Santos has been more consistent recently with a rating of 6.89 over the last 5 matches

Influences

The match is played on grass

The Arena Corinthians historical matches show an average of 2.6 goals per game

Corinthians utilize home advantage well by conceding only 8 goals in 11 home matches

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