Match report →
Corinthians – Athletico PR0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Corinthians
0.87
Total xG
1.79
Athletico PR
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Corinthians | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.89 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Rodrigo Garro on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Yuri Alberto on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| André Luiz Santos Dias on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Breno Bidon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kaio César on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheus Bidu not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 72% of goal output missing (only 32% available) | ||
| Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad selection: Corinthians must play without key figures like Rodrigo Garro and Yuri Alberto, leaving them with only 33% of their usual starting lineup strength
- Form peak: Athletico PR are unbeaten in 5 matches and won each of their last 4 games
- Recent scoring trend: Corinthians are currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
Risks
- Defensive away weakness: Athletico PR concede an average of 2.17 goals per away match
- Tight match prediction: The model projects a highly balanced match with a 30% home win, 36% draw, and 33% away win chance
All probabilities
Result
Corinthians30%
Draw36%
Athletico PR33%
Double chance
Corinthians or draw67%
Athletico PR or draw70%
No draw64%
Goals
Over 1.555%
Under 1.545%
Over 2.527%
Under 2.573%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
1:1
15%
0:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Athletico PR: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Athletico PR with Felipinho: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Corinthians with Zakaria Labyad: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 2 M. França Silva
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 52 Z. Labyad
- 77 J. Lingard
Athletico PR
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 26 C. de Jesus Passos
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 8 R. Garro
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 13 G. Vernes
- 55 I. Machado
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 11 I. Rodrigues de Lima
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 42 M. Soares Rocha
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
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