🇧🇷

Serie A

Botafogo - Grêmio

09/16/2026, 10:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Botafogo
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Grêmio
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BOTGRÊ

Botafogo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.25
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.20
18% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-0.73
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Gustavo Martins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Francis Amuzu not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Tetê on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 3.8 cards per game (42 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Botafogo: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Grêmio: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

28%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical edge: The model predicts a home win probability of 58%
  • Away fragility: Grêmio is conceding an average of 3.17 goals per away game
  • Tactical pressure: Botafogo averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Grêmio plays without the unselected Gustavo Martins, Francis Amuzu, and Tetê
  • Botafogo's recent attack is struggling, averaging only 0.8 goals compared to their 1.6 season average
  • Restricted data availability on weather conditions
Overview

Botafogo (14th place, 32 points) faces Grêmio (16th place, 28 points)

Serie A clash on September 17, 2026, 12:30 AM at Estádio Nilton Santos

Both teams are desperate for points in the lower half of the table

Form

Botafogo is on a LLLDD run (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in their last 5 matches)

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Grêmio shows LLWLL form (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)

Both sides are struggling to find consistency in their recent performances

Statistics

Botafogo scored 38 goals (1.46 avg) and conceded 41 (1.58 avg) overall

At home, Botafogo scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.29 on average

Grêmio scores 1.0 goal on the road but concedes a massive 3.17 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Out of 5 direct encounters, Botafogo won 2, Grêmio won 1, with 2 draws

Both teams have scored exactly 9 goals in these meetings

The last match was a high-scoring 5-3 win for Grêmio

Key Players

Danilo (Midfielder) has 7 goals and 2 assists this season

Arthur Cabral (Attacker) also registered 7 league goals

Alex Telles (Defender) contributes 3 goals and 5 assists

Carlos Vinícius (Attacker) leads Grêmio with 10 goals in 25 games

Cristian Pavón (Attacker) scored 2 goals and created 4 assists

Mathías Villasanti (Midfielder) scored 1 goal in 7 appearances

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Batista guards Botafogo's goal with a 7.09 average rating

Weverton starts for Grêmio, holding a season rating of 6.96

Both goalkeepers have provided stable performances for their teams

Influences

Match played on natural grass at the Estádio Nilton Santos

Historical stadium average stands at 1.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of past games at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.