Match report →
Botafogo – Grêmio3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
1.59
Total xG
2.26
Grêmio
0.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −0.73 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 18% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Gustavo Martins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Francis Amuzu not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tetê on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical edge: The model predicts a home win probability of 58%
- Away fragility: Grêmio is conceding an average of 3.17 goals per away game
- Tactical pressure: Botafogo averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Grêmio plays without the unselected Gustavo Martins, Francis Amuzu, and Tetê
- Botafogo's recent attack is struggling, averaging only 0.8 goals compared to their 1.6 season average
- Restricted data availability on weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo58%
Draw28%
Grêmio14%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw86%
Grêmio or draw42%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
2:0
13%
1:1
13%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: 3.8 cards per game (42 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Grêmio: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Botafogo: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Grêmio: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Botafogo 4-2-3-1 · Grêmio 4-2-3-1
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 3 A. Largura Chaves
- 33 L. Monzón
- 13 A. Telles
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 8 E. Noriega
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 7 C. Pavón
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 77 J. Borges Cabral
- 95 C. Alves Morais
Substitutes
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 29 P. da Silva
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 34 E. Justino
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 91 D. Andrade
- 79 L. Emanuel
- 11 Tetê
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 5 J. Nardoni
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 31 G. Menegon
- 15 D. Barbosa da Silva
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