đŸ‡§đŸ‡·

Serie A

Fluminense - Bahia

07/30/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Fluminense
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Bahia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FLUBAH

Fluminense

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
John Kennedy not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Jefferson Savarino on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
HĂ©rcules on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Guilherme Arana not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Kevin Serna on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Bahia

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
David Duarte not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Willian José  on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Erick not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Fluminense with Guga: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Fluminense: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Bahia: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Form trend gap: Fluminense's goal production recently slowed down to an average of 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5, while Bahia has scored 1.6 goals on average recently, exceeding their season average of 1.45
  • Tactical advantages: Bahia dominated recent matches with 60% average possession and averaged 4.4 shots on target, whereas Fluminense averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their recent matches
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a high 73% probability for the home team's Double Chance (win or draw)
Risk Factors
  • Fluminense averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match recently, indicating difficulties in creating offensive threat
  • Bahia shows a clear defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per away match
  • Limited data availability for total duels in the recent matches of both teams
Overview

Fluminense host Bahia at the Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

Serie A fixture on July 30, 2026, 2:30 AM

Fluminense currently sit 4th with 33 points

Bahia are close behind in 6th place with 31 points

A crucial clash for the league's top positions

Form

Fluminense enter with a WLDDD form after three straight draws

Home form record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss

Bahia recorded a LWWDD form over their last five matches

Away form record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fluminense scores avg 1.5 goals per match and concedes avg 1.25 goals

At home, their defensive line concedes only 0.92 goals on average

Bahia scores avg 1.45 goals and concedes avg 1.25 goals per game

On the road, Bahia concedes an average of 1.75 goals per match

Both teams scored (BTTS) in 15 out of 20 games played by Fluminense

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head encounters so far

Fluminense achieved 2 wins, while Bahia claimed 1 victory

The two sides shared the points in 2 draws

The overall goal score is 8:6 in favor of Fluminense

The last meeting on February 5, 2026, finished as a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Luciano Acosta leads the midfield with 3 goals, 4 assists, and a 7.3 rating

AgustĂ­n Canobbio scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Hulk scored 1 goal during his 2 league appearances

Bahia defender Luciano Juba is their top goalscorer with 7 goals

Rodrigo Nestor features 1 goal and 2 assists with a rising form trend

RomĂĄn GĂłmez has scored 1 goal in his 6 appearances

Goalkeepers

FĂĄbio has kept goal for Fluminense in 20 matches, holding a 6.88 rating

Ronaldo guards Bahia's goal in 11 matches with a 7.00 rating

FĂĄbio secured 2 clean sheets in home matches

Ronaldo collected 2 clean sheets during his away appearances

Influences

The match kicks off on natural grass at the famous Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

Venue stats indicate high-scoring games with avg 3.6 goals in 5 recent matches

The BTTS rate in those games stands at a high 80% (4 out of 5 matches)

Fluminense's solid home defense concedes just 0.92 goals on average

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.