Match report →
Fluminense – Bahia0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Fluminense
1.58
Total xG
2.75
Bahia
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fluminense | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| John Kennedy not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jefferson Savarino on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Hércules on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Arana not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kevin Serna on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| David Duarte not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Willian José on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Erick not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form trend gap: Fluminense's goal production recently slowed down to an average of 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5, while Bahia has scored 1.6 goals on average recently, exceeding their season average of 1.45
- Tactical advantages: Bahia dominated recent matches with 60% average possession and averaged 4.4 shots on target, whereas Fluminense averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their recent matches
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a high 73% probability for the home team's Double Chance (win or draw)
Risks
- Fluminense averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match recently, indicating difficulties in creating offensive threat
- Bahia shows a clear defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per away match
- Limited data availability for total duels in the recent matches of both teams
All probabilities
Result
Fluminense45%
Draw28%
Bahia27%
Double chance
Fluminense or draw73%
Bahia or draw55%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Fluminense with Guga: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Fluminense: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Bahia: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Fluminense 4-2-3-1 · Bahia 4-2-3-1
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 2 S. Brito
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 22 J. Freytes
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 16 G. Santana
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 32 L. Acosta
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 31 R. Gómez
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 46 Luciano
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
- 9 A. Véliz
Substitutes
- 3 T. da Silva
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 25 A. de Freitas Castro
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 27 M. de Araújo Pitaluga Filho
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 14 G. Cano
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 17 G. Herrera
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 43 L. Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos
- 12 W. da Silva
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 57 K. Furquim
- 63 D. Martins Almeida de Lira
- 67 W. Silva Passos
- 55 S. de Carvalho Duarte
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