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Mirassol – Remo2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Mirassol
1.24
Total xG
2.17
Remo
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mirassol | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Willian Machado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Carlos Eduardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jajá on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vitor Bueno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 89% available) |
Key factors
- Home advantage vs Away struggles: Remo concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away match
- Model prediction: The algorithm favors Mirassol with a calculated 42% home win probability
- Tactical style: Both teams recently played counter-oriented football, averaging under 45% possession in their past matches
Risks
- Fatigue: Remo has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, one less day than Mirassol
- Missing quality: Mirassol's squad is weakened by the absence of Alesson, Willian Machado, and Carlos Eduardo
All probabilities
Result
Mirassol42%
Draw32%
Remo26%
Double chance
Mirassol or draw74%
Remo or draw58%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Mirassol with Lucas Oliveira: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · Remo 4-2-3-1
Mirassol
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 6 R. da Silva
- 8 Denilson
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 14 L. Picco
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
Substitutes
- 27 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
- 55 G. Cazonatti
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 28 J. da Silva
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 4 M. Santos Nascimento
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
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