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Serie A

Mirassol - Remo

07/29/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Mirassol
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Remo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
MIRREM

Mirassol

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.03
Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Willian Machado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Carlos Eduardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Remo

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Jajá on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Vitor Bueno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Mirassol with Lucas Oliveira: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage vs Away struggles: Remo concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away match
  • Model prediction: The algorithm favors Mirassol with a calculated 42% home win probability
  • Tactical style: Both teams recently played counter-oriented football, averaging under 45% possession in their past matches
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Remo has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, one less day than Mirassol
  • Missing quality: Mirassol's squad is weakened by the absence of Alesson, Willian Machado, and Carlos Eduardo
Overview

Mirassol host Remo at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Serie A match on July 30, 2026, 12:30 AM

Relegation battle between 19th-placed Mirassol (20 points) and 18th-placed Remo (21 points)

Crucial points are at stake for both sides to avoid the drop

Form

Mirassol form: LWLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Last match was a 1-1 away draw against Vasco da Gama

Remo form: WLWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Coming off a solid 2-0 home win against Vitória

Statistics

Mirassol scores 1.11 goals and concedes 1.37 goals per game on average

Their home defense is tighter, conceding 1.00 goals per game

Remo averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match

Remo struggles defensively away from home, conceding 2.33 goals on average

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match recorded in history

The last direct clash on February 4, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Igor Formiga stabilizes the defense and has scored 4 goals this season

Reinaldo contributed 2 assists and shows a rising form trend

Alef Manga is Remo's top offensive threat with 5 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Thomazella starts for Mirassol, who have kept only 1 clean sheet this season

Marcelo Rangel plays in goal for Remo and has recorded 3 clean sheets this campaign

Influences

Played on natural grass at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Mirassol's better defensive record at home could be a key factor

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