Match report →
Vitória – Palmeiras0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Vitória
0.91
Total xG
2.03
Palmeiras
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.75 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Erick on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical trend: Vitória recently averaged 5.2 shots on target and shows high offensive activity
- Compact home defense: Vitória conceded only 3 goals in 14 home games which is an average of 0.21 per game
- Offensive power of Palmeiras: The league leaders score consistently with an average of 1.79 goals per game this season
Risks
- Injury crisis at Vitória: Numerous absences like C. Andrade de Souza Silva and N. de Souza Mendes weaken the squad
- Low scoring history at the venue: Matches at Estádio Manoel Barradas average only 2.0 goals with a 20% BTTS rate
- Limited data availability for weather and duel statistics
All probabilities
Result
Vitória28%
Draw34%
Palmeiras38%
Double chance
Vitória or draw62%
Palmeiras or draw72%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória with Jamerson: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vitória: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Vitória: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Palmeiras: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Vitória: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 10)
Lineups
Vitória 5-4-1 · Palmeiras 3-4-1-2
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 70 F. de Souza Silva
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 2 E. Brítez
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 6 L. Martínez
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 40 A. Andrade Elias
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 19 R. Sosa
Substitutes
- 79 R. de Souza
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 21 K. Pereira Azarias
- 42 J. López
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 4 A. Giay
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
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