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Serie A

Vitória - Palmeiras

07/30/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Vitória
0.9
Total xG
2.0
Palmeiras
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
VITPAL

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.75
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.13
Erick on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.27
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória with Jamerson: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vitória: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Vitória: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Palmeiras: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Vitória: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

34%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Tactical trend: Vitória recently averaged 5.2 shots on target and shows high offensive activity
  • Compact home defense: Vitória conceded only 3 goals in 14 home games which is an average of 0.21 per game
  • Offensive power of Palmeiras: The league leaders score consistently with an average of 1.79 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
  • Injury crisis at Vitória: Numerous absences like C. Andrade de Souza Silva and N. de Souza Mendes weaken the squad
  • Low scoring history at the venue: Matches at Estádio Manoel Barradas average only 2.0 goals with a 20% BTTS rate
  • Limited data availability for weather and duel statistics
Overview

Vitória hosts league leaders Palmeiras

Serie A match on July 30, 2026, 2:30 AM

Palmeiras leads the standings with 44 points

Vitória currently occupies 13th place with 26 points

Form

Vitória has a form of WLWDL with 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Palmeiras holds a form of DWWWL and recently lost against Atlético Mineiro

Vitória's recent form shows a negative trend

Palmeiras shows a stable form trend and scores consistently with around 1.8 goals per game

Statistics

Vitória scores an average of 1.1 goals and concedes 1.35 goals per game

At home Vitória remains extremely solid defensively conceding only 0.21 goals per game

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.7 goals per game while conceding only 0.8 goals

Palmeiras concedes an average of 0.8 goals both at home and away

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches Palmeiras won twice and Vitória once with 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a clear 5-1 victory for Palmeiras on February 5, 2026

The historical record favors the away team

Key Players

For Vitória Renê stands out with 5 goals in 13 appearances

Baralhas contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season

Matheuzinho has scored 2 goals so far

Palmeiras relies on Andreas Pereira with 10 assists in 19 matches

Allan scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists

Jhon Arias contributed 3 goals this season

Not nominated: Erick (2G/4A)

Goalkeepers

Lucas Arcanjo plays in goal for Vitória with an average rating of 7.06

Carlos Miguel guards the goal for Palmeiras with a rating of 7.01

Vitória kept 8 clean sheets this season while Palmeiras has 7 clean sheets

Influences

At Estádio Manoel Barradas games average 2.0 goals per match

The home advantage is shown in Vitória's strong home record of only 3 goals conceded in 14 matches

The match will be played on natural grass

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