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Serie A

Grêmio - São Paulo

08/08/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Grêmio
1.2
Total xG
2.3
São Paulo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
GRÊSP

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Tetê not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

São Paulo

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
Artur on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Grêmio with Gabriel Mec: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    São Paulo with Luciano: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Grêmio: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Grêmio: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

32%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Defensive home advantage: Grêmio concedes only 0.8 goals on average at home, whereas São Paulo struggles defensively on the road
  • Tactical ball control: São Paulo averaged 56% possession recently, yet generated only 3.8 shots on target per game
  • Lineup adjustments: Grêmio lacks Francis Amuzu and Tetê in the starting eleven, while São Paulo starts without Artur
Risk Factors
  • Away vulnerability: São Paulo concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away game this season
  • Shared form crisis: Grêmio won just one of their last five matches, while São Paulo remains winless in their last five outings (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
Overview

Grêmio (17th place, 22 points) host São Paulo (12th place, 26 points)

Serie A clash at the Arena do Grêmio

Kick-off on August 8, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams urgently need points to improve their positions

Form

Grêmio's current form is DWLLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Fluminense

São Paulo's current form is LDLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

They recently played out a 1-1 draw against Flamengo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Grêmio averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Grêmio concedes an average of just 0.8 goals per match

São Paulo scores an average of 1.25 goals away but concedes 1.88 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio has 2 wins while São Paulo has 3 wins

The goal difference is 5:6 in favor of São Paulo

The last meeting on February 12, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for São Paulo

Key Players

Carlos Vinícius has scored 10 goals in 19 appearances for Grêmio

Cristian Pavón has contributed 3 assists with an average rating of 7.2

Marlon holds a strong rating of 7.28 in 7 appearances

For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri leads the attack with 7 goals and 1 assist

Luciano follows closely with 6 goals and a 7.05 rating

Robert Arboleda anchors the defense with a rating of 7.01

Goalkeepers

Weverton played 18 matches for Grêmio, contributing to 5 clean sheets

Rafael made 20 appearances for São Paulo, keeping 4 clean sheets

Influences

Grêmio benefits from a solid home defense, conceding only 0.8 goals per match

Arena do Grêmio averages 2.6 goals per game historically

São Paulo's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.88 goals

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