Match report →
Grêmio – São Paulo2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Grêmio
1.18
Total xG
2.27
São Paulo
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grêmio | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.45 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tetê not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Artur on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive home advantage: Grêmio concedes only 0.8 goals on average at home, whereas São Paulo struggles defensively on the road
- Tactical ball control: São Paulo averaged 56% possession recently, yet generated only 3.8 shots on target per game
- Lineup adjustments: Grêmio lacks Francis Amuzu and Tetê in the starting eleven, while São Paulo starts without Artur
Risks
- Away vulnerability: São Paulo concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away game this season
- Shared form crisis: Grêmio won just one of their last five matches, while São Paulo remains winless in their last five outings (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
All probabilities
Result
Grêmio36%
Draw32%
São Paulo32%
Double chance
Grêmio or draw68%
São Paulo or draw64%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
10%
0:1
10%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- São Paulo: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Grêmio with Gabriel Mec: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- São Paulo with Luciano: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Grêmio: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Grêmio: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Grêmio 4-1-4-1 · São Paulo 4-2-3-1
Grêmio
- 1 W. Pereira da Silva
- 27 D. Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 23 M. Rodrigues Xavier
- 19 E. Noriega
- 7 C. Pavón
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 5 J. Nardoni
- 77 J. Borges Cabral
- 95 C. Alves Morais
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
Substitutes
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 22 M. Braithwait
- 9 F. Amuzu
- 33 L. Pérez
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 20 A. Ulineia Buta
- 22 D. Sousa Coutinho Meneses Duarte
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 31 C. Coronel
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →