đŸ‡§đŸ‡·

Serie A

Palmeiras - Internacional

08/09/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Palmeiras
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Internacional
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PALINT

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.70
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 17, 16 places gap)
+0.09
Gustavo Gómez  not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)

Internacional

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 1, 16 places gap)
-0.17
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
Alerrandro on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Palmeiras with Paulinho : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Internacional with Alan Patrick : 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Palmeiras: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Internacional: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Palmeiras: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Strong form of Palmeiras: The home side secured 4 wins in their last 5 matches (Form: WWWLW)
  • Offensive dominance: Palmeiras is scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.9) and recently averaged 5.4 shots on target
  • Clear table gap: League leaders Palmeiras (47 points) face 17th-placed Internacional (22 points)
Risk Factors
  • Injuries for the home team: B. de Lara Fuchs (Appendicitis) and P. Sampaio Filho (Muscle Injury) are sidelined
  • Historical balance: In the last 5 direct duels, Internacional managed to secure one win and one draw
  • Resilience of the visitors: Despite poor form, Internacional recently averaged 3.0 shots on target and holds high xG potential
Overview

Palmeiras (1st place, 47 points) host Internacional (17th place, 22 points)

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 9:00 PM at Allianz Parque

The league leaders face a relegation-threatened opponent

Form

Palmeiras are in strong form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches (WWWLW)

Internacional are winless in their last 5 games (LLLLD)

The form trends clearly favor the home side

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Palmeiras score an average of 1.81 goals per game and concede 0.76

Internacional score an average of 1.1 goals and concede 1.29

Internacional concede an average of 1.67 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 3 times, with 1 draw and 1 win for Internacional

The goal difference is 9:4 in favor of Palmeiras

The last direct duel ended in a 3:1 victory for Palmeiras

Key Players

Jhon Arias has scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Andreas Pereira has already recorded 10 assists

Johan Carbonero leads the visitors with 5 goals

Not nominated: Gustavo GĂłmez (3 goals) and Alerrandro (3 goals)

Goalkeepers

Carlos Miguel has played 20 matches with 8 clean sheets

Matheus Cunha has made one appearance for Internacional

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Allianz Parque

Previous home matches averaged 1.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.