Match report →
Palmeiras – Internacional0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Palmeiras
1.26
Total xG
2.21
Internacional
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Palmeiras | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 1, 16 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 17, 16 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Gustavo Gómez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alerrandro on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Strong form of Palmeiras: The home side secured 4 wins in their last 5 matches (Form: WWWLW)
- Offensive dominance: Palmeiras is scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.9) and recently averaged 5.4 shots on target
- Clear table gap: League leaders Palmeiras (47 points) face 17th-placed Internacional (22 points)
Risks
- Injuries for the home team: B. de Lara Fuchs (Appendicitis) and P. Sampaio Filho (Muscle Injury) are sidelined
- Historical balance: In the last 5 direct duels, Internacional managed to secure one win and one draw
- Resilience of the visitors: Despite poor form, Internacional recently averaged 3.0 shots on target and holds high xG potential
All probabilities
Result
Palmeiras42%
Draw32%
Internacional26%
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw74%
Internacional or draw58%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
2:0
9%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Palmeiras with Paulinho : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Internacional with Alan Patrick : 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Palmeiras: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Internacional: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Palmeiras: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 · Internacional 3-4-2-1
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 40 A. Andrade Elias
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 19 R. Sosa
Internacional
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 8 B. Corsini
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 10 A. Lourenço
Substitutes
- 42 J. López
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 43 L. Roncholeta Benedetti
- 4 A. Giay
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 29 M. C. Bilong
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 25 G. Mercado
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 49 João Bezerra
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 51 J. Gonçalves
- 52 G. Vinicius
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