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Bragantino – Corinthians0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Bragantino
1.20
Total xG
1.85
Corinthians
0.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bragantino | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.75 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.43 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Fernando on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| José Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gabriel on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Yuri Alberto not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| André Luiz Santos Dias not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form and offensive trend: Bragantino has been scoring more frequently recently, averaging 2.3 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
- Tactical shooting power: Both teams showed strong offensive presence in recent matches, averaging 5.2 shots on target each
- Home defense trump card: Bragantino concedes an average of only 0.75 goals per game when playing at home
Risks
- Corinthians must play without Yuri Alberto (3 goals, 2 assists) and André Luiz Santos Dias (3 goals, 2 assists)
- Limited data availability for the weather conditions of this match
All probabilities
Result
Bragantino48%
Draw34%
Corinthians18%
Double chance
Bragantino or draw82%
Corinthians or draw52%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.528%
Under 2.572%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes35%
No65%
Most likely scores
1:0
17%
0:0
17%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
9%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Corinthians with Gabriel Paulista: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Bragantino with Gabriel: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Corinthians: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Bragantino 4-2-3-1 · Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 14 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
Substitutes
- 57 M. Braz da Silva
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 15 I. Sosa Ospital
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 41 Y. Alves de Aquino
- 62 M. da Silva Carvalho
- 54 Weimar Enrique Vivas Palacios
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 77 J. Lingard
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 46 H. Ferreira de Farias
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
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