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Cruzeiro – Mirassol3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cruzeiro
1.62
Total xG
2.50
Mirassol
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruzeiro | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Kaio Jorge on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gerson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Igor Formiga on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Edson Carioca on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 53% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad depletion for visitors: Mirassol starts with only 54% of their usual lineup strength, missing key contributors Igor Formiga, Alesson, and Edson Carioca
- Tactical dominance: Cruzeiro recently controlled matches, averaging 58.6% possession and 4.8 shots on target per game
- Defensive contrast: Cruzeiro concede only 1.08 goals per game at home, whereas Mirassol concede an average of 2.00 away from home
Risks
- Missing starting power for Cruzeiro: Key offensive threats Kaio Jorge and Gerson are missing from the home team's lineup
- Balanced head-to-head history: The last two direct encounters between these sides ended in draws
- Low scoring expected: The model forecasts a probability of only 46% for over 2.5 goals in this match
All probabilities
Result
Cruzeiro53%
Draw28%
Mirassol19%
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw81%
Mirassol or draw47%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
12%
2:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mirassol: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Mirassol: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Cruzeiro with Keny Arroyo: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Mirassol with José Aldo: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 · Mirassol 4-3-1-2
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 25 L. Villalba
- 29 L. Romero
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 70 K. Takamura Correa
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
Mirassol
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 6 R. da Silva
- 55 G. Cazonatti
- 8 Denilson
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Substitutes
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 67 J. e Costa Cesco
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
- 27 G. Rojas
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 51 V. Lamounier Rego
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
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