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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Mirassol

08/09/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Cruzeiro
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Mirassol
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CRUMIR

Cruzeiro

Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.01
Kaio Jorge  on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Gerson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Mirassol

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Igor Formiga on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Alesson on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Edson Carioca  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 53% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Mirassol: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Cruzeiro with Keny Arroyo: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Mirassol with José Aldo: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

28%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad depletion for visitors: Mirassol starts with only 54% of their usual lineup strength, missing key contributors Igor Formiga, Alesson, and Edson Carioca
  • Tactical dominance: Cruzeiro recently controlled matches, averaging 58.6% possession and 4.8 shots on target per game
  • Defensive contrast: Cruzeiro concede only 1.08 goals per game at home, whereas Mirassol concede an average of 2.00 away from home
Risk Factors
  • Missing starting power for Cruzeiro: Key offensive threats Kaio Jorge and Gerson are missing from the home team's lineup
  • Balanced head-to-head history: The last two direct encounters between these sides ended in draws
  • Low scoring expected: The model forecasts a probability of only 46% for over 2.5 goals in this match
Overview

Cruzeiro host Mirassol in Serie A

Match played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Kick-off on August 9, 2026, at 4:00 PM

Cruzeiro sit 9th with 30 points, while Mirassol are 15th with 23 points

Form

Cruzeiro's recent form is WDWLW

The hosts recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Mirassol's recent form is WLWDW

The visitors registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cruzeiro score 1.29 goals and concede 1.43 on average this season

At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game

Mirassol average 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Away from home, Mirassol concede 2.00 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches

Cruzeiro won 1 game, with 2 matches ending in a draw

The last meeting on February 11, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

The total goal difference is 5:4 in favor of Cruzeiro

Key Players

Matheus Pereira scored 5 goals and made 2 assists this season with a 7.47 rating

Keny Arroyo has 2 goals and 2 assists

Lucas Romero contributed 1 goal and 3 assists

Reinaldo provided 3 assists in 17 appearances with a 6.95 rating

João Victor recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

Denilson has 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Otávio Costa has 8 appearances for the home side

Cruzeiro kept 5 clean sheets this season

Thomazella has played 1 match for the away side

Mirassol kept only 1 clean sheet overall this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Historically, this venue averages 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of Cruzeiro's home matches

Cruzeiro's home advantage stands against Mirassol's weak away record of 2.00 goals conceded per game

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