Serie A
Bahia - Vasco da Gama
08/09/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
14%0:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Bahia
Vasco da Gama
The Lab
- 1Vasco da Gama with Carlos Cuesta: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3Vasco da Gama: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')
- 4Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Vasco da Gama: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
33%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Table and form advantage: 5th-placed Bahia is unbeaten in 5 games (WWDDD), while 19th-placed Vasco da Gama has lost 4 of their last 5 matches (LLLLD)
- Defensive contrast: Bahia concedes only 0.92 goals at home, whereas Vasco da Gama struggles significantly on the road, conceding 1.89 goals on average when playing away
- Mathematical win probability: The predictive model calculates a 42% chance for a Bahia home win with an expected goal ratio of 1.20 to 0.86
Risk Factors
- Squad absences: Bahia is missing suspended attacker E. da Costa Farias and injured midfielder E. Conrado Carvalho due to a foot injury
- Vasco's dangerous attempts: Vasco da Gama averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a threat despite their low conversion rate
- Rest differential: Bahia has had less recovery time with 10 days since their last match compared to Vasco da Gama with 15 days of rest
Overview
Bahia hosts Vasco da Gama at the Arena Fonte Nova
Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 7:00 PM
Bahia sits in 5th place with 32 points, while Vasco da Gama is in 19th place with 21 points
The home side is the favorite to win this match
Form
Bahia's form is WWDDD with 2 wins and 3 draws
Vasco da Gama's form is LLLLD with 0 wins and 1 draw
Bahia shows a stable trend while Vasco da Gama is in a negative trend
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Bahia scores average 1.38 goals and concedes 1.19
At home Bahia scores 1.42 and concedes 0.92 goals per game
Vasco da Gama scores average 1.15 goals and concedes 1.55
Away from home Vasco da Gama concedes 1.89 goals per game
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches overall
Bahia has 3 wins and Vasco da Gama has 2 wins
The last match ended 1:0 for Bahia
No draws registered in these recent meetings
Key Players
Rodrigo Nestor has 1 goal and 2 assists in 14 appearances for Bahia
David Duarte has 3 goals and 1 assist in 14 appearances for Bahia
Andrés Gómez has 4 goals and 2 assists in 18 appearances for Vasco da Gama
Goalkeepers
Bahia's Ronaldo has 12 appearances and a season rating of 7.17
Vasco da Gama's LĂ©o Jardim has 20 appearances and a season rating of 6.7
Bahia has 6 clean sheets while Vasco da Gama has 1 clean sheet
Influences
The match is played on a grass pitch at the Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia's strong home defense only concedes 0.92 goals per game
Vasco da Gama's away form is weak with 1.89 goals conceded per game