Match report →
Bahia – Vasco da Gama0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.20
Total xG
2.07
Vasco da Gama
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 5, 14 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 19, 14 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Erick not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Cauan Barros on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nuno Moreira not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table and form advantage: 5th-placed Bahia is unbeaten in 5 games (WWDDD), while 19th-placed Vasco da Gama has lost 4 of their last 5 matches (LLLLD)
- Defensive contrast: Bahia concedes only 0.92 goals at home, whereas Vasco da Gama struggles significantly on the road, conceding 1.89 goals on average when playing away
- Mathematical win probability: The predictive model calculates a 42% chance for a Bahia home win with an expected goal ratio of 1.20 to 0.86
Risks
- Squad absences: Bahia is missing suspended attacker E. da Costa Farias and injured midfielder E. Conrado Carvalho due to a foot injury
- Vasco's dangerous attempts: Vasco da Gama averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a threat despite their low conversion rate
- Rest differential: Bahia has had less recovery time with 10 days since their last match compared to Vasco da Gama with 15 days of rest
All probabilities
Result
Bahia42%
Draw33%
Vasco da Gama25%
Double chance
Bahia or draw75%
Vasco da Gama or draw58%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
14%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama with Carlos Cuesta: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Vasco da Gama: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')
- Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Vasco da Gama: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Bahia 4-4-2 · Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 31 R. Gómez
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 46 Luciano
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 12 W. da Silva
- 9 A. Véliz
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 20 B. Souza da Silva
Substitutes
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 17 G. Herrera
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 57 K. Furquim
- 63 D. Martins Almeida de Lira
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 37 P. de Paula Cardoso
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 77 C. Spinelli
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 10 J. Rojas Echavarría
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 64 W. Fernandes Alves Falcão
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
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