Match report →
Coritiba – Chapecoense2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coritiba
1.47
Total xG
2.42
Chapecoense
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coritiba | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +1.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 11, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 20, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.05 | |
| Bruno Pacheco on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Yannick Bolasie not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Coritiba's home offense meets Chapecoense's fragile away defense which concedes an average of 2.83 goals per game
- Tactical edge: Coritiba averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Chapecoense's 3.0
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 48% probability for a Coritiba home win
Risks
- Bruno Pacheco and Yannick Bolasie are missing for Chapecoense, leaving only 64% of their attacking potential available
- Goal drought: Coritiba's recent scoring rate is at 1.0 and Chapecoense's at only 0.6 goals per match, both below their seasonal averages
- Chapecoense has failed to keep a single clean sheet in their away matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Coritiba47%
Draw30%
Chapecoense23%
Double chance
Coritiba or draw77%
Chapecoense or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Chapecoense with Bruno Leonardo : 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 12 Fernando
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 22 M. Alves da Silva
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
Substitutes
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 6 F. Rocha Andrade
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 28 F. da Silva
- 20 M. da Silva França
- 13 K. da Silva Nunes
- 44 J. Pedro Chermont Crema
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 97 Ênio
- 18 A. Cordeiro Pessôa Neto
- 17 V. Balieiro Lourenco de Carvalho
- 94 K. Ramírez Dutra
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 50 K. d. S. d. Jesus
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
- 39 R. Azevedo Tiago
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