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Serie A

Coritiba - Chapecoense

08/08/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Coritiba
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Chapecoense
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CORCHA

Coritiba

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 20, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.05

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+1.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 11, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.09
Bruno Pacheco on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Yannick Bolasie not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Coritiba: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Chapecoense with Bruno Leonardo : 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Coritiba's home offense meets Chapecoense's fragile away defense which concedes an average of 2.83 goals per game
  • Tactical edge: Coritiba averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Chapecoense's 3.0
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 48% probability for a Coritiba home win
Risk Factors
  • Bruno Pacheco and Yannick Bolasie are missing for Chapecoense, leaving only 64% of their attacking potential available
  • Goal drought: Coritiba's recent scoring rate is at 1.0 and Chapecoense's at only 0.6 goals per match, both below their seasonal averages
  • Chapecoense has failed to keep a single clean sheet in their away matches this season
Overview

Coritiba (11th place, 27 points) host Chapecoense (20th place, 10 points)

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 1:30 AM

Clear favorite role for the home team against the league's bottom side

Form

Coritiba shows mixed form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent matches (WLLDL)

Chapecoense is winless in 5 matches with 1 draw and 4 losses (LLLLD)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Coritiba averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game this season

Chapecoense struggles defensively, conceding an average of 2.05 goals per match

Away from home, Chapecoense concedes an extremely high average of 2.83 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been only 1 head-to-head match between these teams

Their last meeting on February 11, 2026, ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw

The historical record is completely balanced

Key Players

Breno Lopes is Coritiba's top threat with 8 goals this season

Josué dominates the midfield having already provided 8 assists

Marcinho has scored 2 goals for Chapecoense so far

Goalkeepers

Pedro Morisco has made 5 appearances for Coritiba, contributing to the team's 6 clean sheets this season

Anderson has only kept 1 clean sheet in 6 matches for Chapecoense

Both goalkeepers will be tested in this encounter

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the EstĂĄdio Major AntĂŽnio Couto Pereira

This venue is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.2 goals per match

Coritiba had 8 days of rest while Chapecoense had 14 days of recovery time

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