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Serie A

Santos - Athletico PR

08/09/2026, 09:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Santos
1.0
Total xG
2.0
Athletico PR
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

12%

1:0

12%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
SANAP

Santos

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.61
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.02
Benjamín Rollheiser on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Miguelito on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Athletico PR

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Athletico PR with Jádson: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Santos: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Santos: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Athletico PR: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

35%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Form disparity: Athletico PR is unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw) while Santos suffered 3 defeats in the same span
  • Missing key players: Santos will play without Benjamín Rollheiser and Miguelito, while the visitors lack Lucas Esquivel
  • Shooting efficiency: Santos averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Athletico PR's average of 3.8
Risk Factors
  • Defensive issues on the road: Athletico PR concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away match
  • Defensive crisis for Santos: The team concedes an average of 1.65 goals per game and has multiple injured defenders
  • Low scoring expectations: The mathematical model predicts a tight match with only a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals
Overview

Santos host Athletico PR at the Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 9:30 PM

Santos is in 16th place with 22 points fighting relegation

Athletico PR visits as 3rd in the standings with 37 points

Form

Santos form: LLWLD

The home team has 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Athletico PR form: WWWWD

The visitors are unbeaten with 4 wins and 1 draw recently

Statistics

Santos scores 1.45 goals and concedes 1.65 goals per game on average

At home, their defense improves to an average of 1.17 goals conceded

Athletico PR scores 1.33 goals per match and concedes only 0.9 goals

However, the visitors concede an average of 1.86 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the teams

This last direct duel ended in a 2-1 win for the away side

There are no other recorded matches in this period

Key Players

Gabriel Barbosa is Santos' top threat with 7 goals this season

Álvaro Barreal has contributed 4 goals and 1 assist so far

Visitor Kevin Viveros leads Athletico PR with 12 goals this season

Leozinho scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Gastón Benavídez has already provided 5 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Gabriel Brazão has made 18 appearances for Santos this season

For the visitors, Mycael is set for his first appearance of the season

Santos has kept 4 clean sheets so far

Athletico PR has recorded 7 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

Estádio Urbano Caldeira averages 3.2 total goals per match

Santos has scored an average of 1.42 goals per home game

Athletico PR must adapt to their away struggles on the grass pitch

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.86 goals per game

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