Match report →
Santos – Athletico PR0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Santos
0.96
Total xG
1.98
Athletico PR
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Benjamín Rollheiser on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Miguelito on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lucas Esquivel not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form disparity: Athletico PR is unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw) while Santos suffered 3 defeats in the same span
- Missing key players: Santos will play without Benjamín Rollheiser and Miguelito, while the visitors lack Lucas Esquivel
- Shooting efficiency: Santos averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Athletico PR's average of 3.8
Risks
- Defensive issues on the road: Athletico PR concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away match
- Defensive crisis for Santos: The team concedes an average of 1.65 goals per game and has multiple injured defenders
- Low scoring expectations: The mathematical model predicts a tight match with only a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Santos31%
Draw35%
Athletico PR34%
Double chance
Santos or draw66%
Athletico PR or draw69%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.532%
Under 2.568%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
0:1
12%
1:0
12%
0:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Athletico PR with Jádson: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Santos: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Santos: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Athletico PR: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
Lineups
Santos 4-2-2-2 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 25 G. Menino
- 98 A. Frías
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 31 G. Escobar
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
- 17 G. Caballero
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Substitutes
- 30 M. Terceros
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 1 D. da Silva
- 7 R. de Souza Júnior
- 16 T. da Silva
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 57 N. Maia da Silva de Souza
- 81 S. e Silva
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 42 M. Soares Rocha
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
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