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Serie A

Botafogo - Fluminense

08/09/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Botafogo
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Fluminense
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
BOTFLU

Botafogo

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.16
Matheus Martins on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)

Fluminense

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.35
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.23
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.14
Luciano Acosta on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 56% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Fluminense with Guga: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Botafogo with Matheus Martins: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Botafogo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

34%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Fluminense is missing key attacking threat as Luciano Acosta (3 goals, 4 assists) and Guga are not in the squad
  • Botafogo averaged a counter-oriented style with 5.8 shots on target per match despite having only 44% possession recently
  • Fluminense has shown away-day defensive struggles, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Reduced offensive potential for Fluminense, with only 56% of the usual starting goal threat active due to Luciano Acosta's absence
  • Botafogo's recent scoring has slowed down, averaging 1.25 goals compared to their season average of 1.79
  • Mathematical models predict a low probability of only 33% for over 2.5 goals
Overview

Botafogo (8th place, 29 points) host Fluminense (4th place, 34 points) at the EstĂĄdio Nilton Santos

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 2:00 AM

A crucial battle for the top positions

Form

Botafogo shows a form of DLWDW with 2 wins and 2 draws

Fluminense recently recorded 4 draws with a form of LDDDD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Botafogo averages 1.79 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per match

Fluminense scores an average of 1.5 goals away but concedes 1.75 goals

Botafogo has scored 17 goals in 10 home matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 wins for the home team and 2 for the away team

The last encounter ended in a 0-1 victory for the away side

Key Players

Danilo has scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Arthur Cabral has scored 7 goals this season, including 3 in his last 5 games

Alex Telles contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 18 appearances

Rodrigo Castillo has recorded 3 goals and 1 assist so far

Nonato has scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist

RenĂȘ has provided 2 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Warleson has played 2 matches this season with an average rating of 7.53

FĂĄbio has played 21 matches and recorded 4 clean sheets

The goalkeeper comparison highlights different levels of playing time this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the EstĂĄdio Nilton Santos

An average of 2.8 goals per game were scored in the previous 5 home matches

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches at this venue

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