Match report →
Botafogo – Fluminense1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
1.07
Total xG
2.01
Fluminense
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.67 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.35 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Matheus Martins on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Luciano Acosta on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Guga on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 56% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Fluminense is missing key attacking threat as Luciano Acosta (3 goals, 4 assists) and Guga are not in the squad
- Botafogo averaged a counter-oriented style with 5.8 shots on target per match despite having only 44% possession recently
- Fluminense has shown away-day defensive struggles, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per away game
Risks
- Reduced offensive potential for Fluminense, with only 56% of the usual starting goal threat active due to Luciano Acosta's absence
- Botafogo's recent scoring has slowed down, averaging 1.25 goals compared to their season average of 1.79
- Mathematical models predict a low probability of only 33% for over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo36%
Draw34%
Fluminense30%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw70%
Fluminense or draw64%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Fluminense with Guga: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Botafogo with Matheus Martins: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Botafogo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Botafogo 4-2-3-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Botafogo
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 2 V. da Silva
- 34 E. Justino
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 13 A. Telles
- 6 C. Medina
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 2 S. Brito
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 44 J. Ribeiro da Silva
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 16 G. Santana
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 19 R. Castillo
Substitutes
- 9 D. Pereira da Silva
- 29 P. da Silva
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 37 K. Barria
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 14 J. Barrera Herrera
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 91 D. Andrade
- 33 L. Monzón
- 79 L. Emanuel
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 32 L. Acosta
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 27 M. de Araújo Pitaluga Filho
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 14 G. Cano
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
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