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Serie A

Flamengo - Vitória

08/09/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Vitória
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
FLAVIT

Flamengo

Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.09
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Bruno Henrique  on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.41
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.09
Baralhas  on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Ramon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Luan Cândido not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória with Renato Kayzer: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Flamengo: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Vitória: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Flamengo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Flamengo with Guillermo Varela: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Weakened opponent: Vitória is heavily depleted, with only 66% of their usual starting lineup strength available
  • Fragile away defense: Vitória concedes a devastating average of 3.43 goals per away match
  • Home offensive power: Flamengo scores a reliable average of 1.89 goals per home game
Risk Factors
  • Slight drop in Flamengo's form: Their last two consecutive matches ended in a draw
  • Struggling offense for Vitória: The visitors' goal production has recently dropped to an average of 0.5 goals per game
Overview

Flamengo (2nd place, 39 points) host Vitória (13th place, 26 points)

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 11:30 PM

Flamengo aim to keep pressure on league leaders Palmeiras

Form

Flamengo's form string is LWWDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently recorded two consecutive draws

Vitória enter with a form of LWDLL

The visitors managed only one win in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Flamengo average 1.85 goals scored and only 0.9 conceded per game

Vitória concede a devastating average of 3.43 goals per away match

At home, Flamengo score an average of 1.89 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Historical dominance for the home side in the last 5 meetings

Flamengo secured 3 wins and remained unbeaten in these duels

The last match ended in a 2-1 victory for Flamengo

Overall goal difference stands at 15:5 in favor of Flamengo

Key Players

Pedro leads Flamengo with 12 goals and 4 assists this season

Samuel Lino has contributed 5 goals and 7 assists so far

Renê is Vitória's top threat with 5 goals scored

Goalkeepers

Agustín Rossi is in goal for Flamengo with 8 clean sheets this season

Lucas Arcanjo starts for Vitória and also has 8 clean sheets

Rossi kept 4 of his clean sheets in home matches

Influences

Home advantage for Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game in historical data

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at this stadium

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