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Flamengo – Vitória2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.64
Total xG
2.38
Vitória
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Bruno Henrique on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Baralhas on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ramon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Luan Cândido not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Weakened opponent: Vitória is heavily depleted, with only 66% of their usual starting lineup strength available
- Fragile away defense: Vitória concedes a devastating average of 3.43 goals per away match
- Home offensive power: Flamengo scores a reliable average of 1.89 goals per home game
Risks
- Slight drop in Flamengo's form: Their last two consecutive matches ended in a draw
- Struggling offense for Vitória: The visitors' goal production has recently dropped to an average of 0.5 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo57%
Draw27%
Vitória15%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw85%
Vitória or draw43%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória with Renato Kayzer: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Flamengo: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Vitória: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Flamengo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Flamengo with Guillermo Varela: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 4-2-3-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 70 F. de Souza Silva
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 2 E. Brítez
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 6 L. Martínez
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Substitutes
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 99 L. Pereira de Sousa
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 13 D. da Silva
- 64 W. de Souza Barreto
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 27 B. Pinto
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 79 R. de Souza
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 35 Fintelman
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 41 W. dos Santos Sacramento
- 8 T. Pochettino
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