Match report →
Remo – Atlético Mineiro2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Remo
0.91
Total xG
2.02
Atlético Mineiro
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Remo | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.77 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 10, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 19, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Alef Manga on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Vitor Bueno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcelinho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Victor Hugo on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mateo Cassierra on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tomás Cuello on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Natanael on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Renan Lodi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Form advantage for visitors: Atlético Mineiro arrive with a stable WLWDW record and a rising trend
- Offensive improvement: Atlético Mineiro are currently scoring more (1.4 goals) compared to their season average (1.3)
- Home defensive strength: Remo concede only 1.0 goals per home game on average compared to 1.62 overall
Risks
- Weakened Remo squad: Key players like Alef Manga, Vitor Bueno, and Marcelinho are missing, leaving only 74% of the goal share active
- Mineiro squad depletion: Important players including Victor Hugo, Mateo Cassierra, and Tomás Cuello are absent, leaving only 75% of the goal share available
- Struggling offense: Remo's attack has stalled recently, averaging just 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2
All probabilities
Result
Remo28%
Draw34%
Atlético Mineiro38%
Double chance
Remo or draw62%
Atlético Mineiro or draw72%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Atlético Mineiro: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Atlético Mineiro with Lyanco: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Remo 4-2-3-1 · Atlético Mineiro 4-3-3
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 4 M. Santos Nascimento
- 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 28 J. da Silva
- 14 L. Picco
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
Atlético Mineiro
- 22 E. Marques Pires
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 4 R. Tressoldi Netto
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 39 M. Cissé
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 27 A. Minda García
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 11 B. Anício Caldeira Duarte
Substitutes
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 5 L. de Andrade Silva
- 11 A. Mangueira Severino Pereira
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 9 G. Buscariol Poveda
- 39 Eduardo Queiroz
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 61 P. da Costa Evangelista Junior
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
- 18 T. Borbas
- 25 T. Pérez
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
- 28 T. Cuello
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 2 Natanael
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →