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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Santos

08/16/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Vasco da Gama
1.8
Total xG
3.2
Santos
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VDGSAN

Vasco da Gama

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.51
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.27
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.07
José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Cuiabano not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Cauan Barros on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Santos

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Miguelito on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Gabriel Bontempo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vasco da Gama with José Luis Rodríguez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Santos with Igor VinĂ­cius: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Santos: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Vasco da Gama: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Flamengo: 2 goals (84', 90+7')

  • 5
    Vasco da Gama: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

26%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Santos scored more goals recently (1.6) compared to their season average (1.5)
  • Santos averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Vasco da Gama dominated the historical head-to-head record at home with 2 wins out of 3 matches
Risk Factors
  • Santos concedes an average of 2.11 goals in away matches
  • Vasco da Gama's goal production has stalled recently at 0.3 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
Overview

Vasco da Gama (18th place, 22 points) host Santos (17th place, 22 points) at the EstĂĄdio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Serie A match on August 16, 2026, 8:00 PM

A crucial relegation battle

Form

Vasco da Gama is winless in 5 games with a form of LLLDD

They recently registered two consecutive draws

Santos has a form of LWLDL

Their last match ended in a loss against Athletico PR

Statistics

Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.1 goals and concedes 1.48 goals per game

Both teams scored in 14 out of 21 matches

Santos scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 1.67 goals

Santos concedes an average of 2.11 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches in recent years

Vasco da Gama won 2 matches, while Santos won 1

The last encounter ended 2-1 in favor of Santos

Goal difference of 9-3 for Vasco da Gama

Key Players

Andrés Gómez has 4 goals and 2 assists this season

Thiago Mendes contributed 3 goals and 1 assist so far

Facundo Colidio recently scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 5 games

Gabriel Barbosa leads with 7 goals and 2 assists

Neymar scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists in 9 appearances

Álvaro Barreal contributed 4 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

LĂ©o Jardim has made 21 appearances this season with 2 clean sheets

Gabriel BrazĂŁo has played 19 matches and recorded 4 clean sheets

Influences

Home game for Vasco da Gama at the EstĂĄdio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama on grass

In the 5 home matches played so far, there was an average of 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 of these matches

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