đŸ‡§đŸ‡·

Serie A

Fluminense - Palmeiras

08/15/2026, 07:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Fluminense
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Palmeiras
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FLUPAL

Fluminense

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Luciano Acosta on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Kevin Serna on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Palmeiras

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.30
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
RamĂłn Sosa on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Mauricio on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Palmeiras with Gustavo Gómez : 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Fluminense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Fluminense with Guga: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Fluminense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Palmeiras: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Defensive strength: Palmeiras concede an average of only 0.73 goals per game this season
  • Stalling attack: Fluminense averaged only 1.0 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.48
  • Balanced target threat: Both teams averaged exactly 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Fluminense is missing Luciano Acosta and Kevin Serna, leaving only 72% of their goal threat available
  • Draw proneness: Fluminense have recorded five consecutive draws recently (DDDDD)
Overview

Fluminense host Palmeiras

Serie A match on August 15, 2026, 7:30 PM at Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho

League leaders Palmeiras (48 points) travel to 4th-placed Fluminense (35 points)

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 40%

A crucial clash at the top of the table

Form

Fluminense's recent form is DDDDD

Five consecutive draws for the home side

Palmeiras show a form string of WWLWD

The visitors recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fluminense score an average of 1.41 goals and concede 1.18 per game

Palmeiras average 1.73 goals scored and only 0.73 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 16 of Fluminense's 22 matches

Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 9 games this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between the teams

An even record with 2 wins each and 1 draw

The last match ended 2-1 in favor of Palmeiras on February 26, 2026

A balanced goal difference of 4-4 in direct duels

Key Players

Fluminense rely on Hulk (1 goal, 7.11 rating), AgustĂ­n Canobbio (4 goals, 2 assists, 7.01 rating), and goalkeeper FĂĄbio (6.92 rating)

Palmeiras feature Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 10 assists, 7.28 rating), Jhon Arias (4 goals, 2 assists, 7.16 rating), and José Manuel López (6 goals, 3 assists, 7.03 rating)

Not nominated are Luciano Acosta and Kevin Serna

Goalkeepers

Fluminense goalkeeper FĂĄbio has kept 4 clean sheets this season

Carlos Miguel for Palmeiras has kept 9 clean sheets with a season rating of 7.04

Influences

Fluminense are solid at home, averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded

The Estadio Jornalista MĂĄrio Filho averages 1.8 goals per match

No weather data is available in the provided dataset

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.