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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio

08/16/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Grêmio
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AMGRÊ

Atlético Mineiro

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.35
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.19
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Bernard on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Maycon  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Natanael on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Grêmio

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.08
Tetê on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Mineiro: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Grêmio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Atlético Mineiro: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Grêmio with Pedro Gabriel: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlético Mineiro with Tomás Cuello: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

32%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Grêmio recently averaged 4.4 shots on target in past matches compared to Atlético Mineiro's 3.2
  • Offensive form: Grêmio are currently scoring more frequently recently (1.6 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.3)
  • Home vs Away: Atlético Mineiro remain structured at home, whereas Grêmio struggle heavily on the road with an average of 2.8 goals conceded
Risk Factors
  • Away vulnerability: Grêmio concede an average of 2.8 goals per away match
  • Squad impact: Atlético Mineiro lack regular starters Bernard, Maycon, and Natanael, reducing their available assists share by 26%
  • Limited data regarding weather conditions
Overview

Atlético Mineiro host Grêmio at the Arena MRV

Serie A match on August 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Atlético Mineiro sit in 11th place with 29 points

Grêmio currently occupy 14th place with 25 points

Both teams aim to climb into the top half of the standings

Form

Atlético Mineiro show a stable run of form with LWDWD

The hosts secured 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Grêmio display a positive trend with the form WLLDW

The visitors won their last match against São Paulo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro score 1.29 goals per game and concede 1.29

Grêmio suffer defensively away from home, conceding avg. 2.8 goals

The home side scored average 1.27 goals per home match

Grêmio average 1.2 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Grêmio have been dominant in recent direct encounters

Out of 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 3 and Atlético Mineiro won 2

The last duel ended 2-1 in favor of Grêmio on February 26, 2026

Overall goal difference in these matches is 8-10

Key Players

Victor Hugo leads the midfield for the hosts with 4 goals and 1 assist

Mateo Cassierra has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 17 appearances

Carlos Vinícius is Grêmio's main threat with 10 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Everson played all 21 games for the hosts and achieved 4 clean sheets

Weverton has kept 5 clean sheets in 19 appearances for Grêmio

Both keepers hold steady season ratings of 6.93 (Everson) and 6.98 (Weverton)

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena MRV

Historically, matches at this venue average 3.0 goals

Both teams scored in 80% of those games

No weather data available for this fixture

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