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Serie A

São Paulo - Coritiba

08/16/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
São Paulo
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Coritiba
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SPCOR

São Paulo

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
Ferreirinha on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Artur on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Coritiba

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.10
Josué not in squad (1 goals, 9 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    São Paulo: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Coritiba: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Coritiba with Felipe Jonatan: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    São Paulo with Luciano: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Coritiba: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense: São Paulo concede an average of only 0.67 goals at home
  • Key player missing: Coritiba are without Josué (1 goal, 9 assists), leaving only 45% of season assists available
  • Tactical dominance: São Paulo controlled recent matches with an average of 56.4% possession
Risk Factors
  • Form crisis for São Paulo: The home side is winless in their last 5 matches (DLLDL)
  • Scoring slump: São Paulo's goal production has dropped to an average of 0.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.24
  • Loss of creativity: São Paulo are missing Ferreirinha and Artur, leaving only 83% of active goals available
Overview

São Paulo host Coritiba at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Serie A match on August 16, 2026, 1:00 AM

A crucial mid-table clash for both teams

The home side enters this match as slight favorites

Form

São Paulo are going through a difficult period, remaining winless in their last 5 games

São Paulo form string across all competitions: DLLDL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Coritiba managed to secure a victory in their most recent fixture

Coritiba form string: LLDLW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Statistics

São Paulo average 1.24 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded this season

Their home defense is extremely solid, conceding only 0.67 goals per match

Coritiba score 1.23 goals on average while conceding 1.32 per game

On the road, Coritiba's defense is more vulnerable, conceding 1.45 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the sides in recent years

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 scoreline

This encounter took place on February 25, 2026

Key Players

Luciano has already scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists for São Paulo

Jonathan Calleri is a key offensive threat with 7 goals this season

Marcos Antônio has been solid in midfield with a 6.99 average rating

For Coritiba, Breno Lopes stands out with 8 goals scored

Joaquín Lavega has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists this season

Pedro Rocha has recorded 5 goals and 1 assist so far

Goalkeepers

Rafael starts in goal for São Paulo with a 6.77 rating and 4 clean sheets this season

Pedro Morisco guards Coritiba's net, holding a 7.09 rating and 6 clean sheets overall

Influences

The match takes place on grass at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Games at this stadium average 3.0 goals per match this season

São Paulo benefit from home advantage, conceding just 8 goals in 12 home matches

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