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Serie A

Mirassol - Flamengo

08/16/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 5
Expected Goals
Mirassol
0.9
Total xG
2.3
Flamengo
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

12%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
MIRFLA

Mirassol

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02

Flamengo

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+0.27
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.09
Samuel Lino on the bench (5 goals, 7 assists)
Bruno Henrique  not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Jorginho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Mirassol: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Mirassol: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Flamengo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Flamengo with Ayrton Lucas: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

31%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Flamengo's offensive power: The team currently scores more frequently (2.2 goals per game) than their season average (1.9)
  • Tactical superiority: Flamengo controlled recent matches averaging 63% possession and 6.4 shots on target
  • Form gap: While Flamengo is undefeated in 5 games (WWDDW), Mirassol lost 2 of their last 5 fixtures (LWDWL)
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability on duel statistics for both teams
  • Mirassol averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Absence of D. De La Cruz Arcosa weakens Flamengo's midfield
Overview

Mirassol (15th place, 23 points) host Flamengo (2nd place, 42 points) at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Serie A match on August 16, 2026, 11:30 PM

Flamengo enters the match as favorites in the title race

Form

Mirassol shows an inconsistent form of LWDWL

Flamengo is unbeaten in their last 5 games with a form of WWDDW

Mirassol recently lost 1-3 to Cruzeiro, while Flamengo secured a 2-0 win against Vitória

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mirassol scored 24 goals this season (avg 1.14 per game) and conceded 30 (avg 1.43)

Flamengo is highly stable defensively with only 18 goals conceded (avg 0.86) and 39 scored (avg 1.86)

At home, Mirassol concedes exactly 1.00 goal per game on average

Flamengo scored 20 goals in 11 away matches (avg 1.82)

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between the teams

Flamengo has 1 win, while 1 match ended in a draw

The last meeting on December 6, 2025, ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw

Key Players

Igor Formiga stands out in Mirassol's defense with 4 goals this season and a 7.02 average rating

Reinaldo contributes 1 goal and 3 assists in defense (rating 6.92)

João Victor solidifies Mirassol's defense with a rating of 6.95

Top scorer Pedro leads Flamengo with 12 goals and 4 assists (average rating of 7.35)

Léo Pereira excels in Flamengo's defense with 2 goals and an rating of 7.21

Erick Pulgar contributes 2 goals in Flamengo's midfield (rating 6.92)

Not selected for Flamengo: Samuel Lino (5G/7A), Bruno Henrique (1G/3A), Jorginho (2G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Walter played 19 games for Mirassol, keeping 1 clean sheet

Agustín Rossi played 21 matches for Flamengo, securing 9 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

In this stadium, matches averaged 2.4 goals per game over the last 5 fixtures

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