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Serie A

Chapecoense - Bahia

08/16/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Bahia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
CHABAH

Chapecoense

Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 6, 14 places gap)
-0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average)
-0.12
Bruno Pacheco on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Yannick Bolasie not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)

Bahia

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 20, 14 places gap)
+0.08
Willian José  on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Ademir not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Chapecoense with Giovanni Augusto: 0.3 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Bahia: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Chapecoense: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

31%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Table and form contrast: Bottom-placed Chapecoense (10 points, form LLLDL) faces sixth-placed Bahia (33 points, form WDDDD)
  • Tactical advantage: Bahia recently dominated with an average of 54% possession and 14.4 total shots, while Chapecoense averaged only 45% possession
  • Hosts' defensive vulnerability: Chapecoense concedes a very high average of 2.05 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
  • Yannick Bolasie and Bruno Pacheco are missing, leaving Chapecoense with only 61% of their seasonal goal threat available
  • Away defense drop: Bahia concedes an average of 1.56 goals on the road compared to only 0.85 at home
  • Low shooting efficiency: Both teams averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Chapecoense (20th place, 10 points) host Bahia (6th place, 33 points)

Serie A match at Arena CondĂĄ on August 16, 2026, 4:00 PM

The bottom team faces a top-6 opponent

Form

Chapecoense is in poor form: LLLDL

The hosts recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses recently

Bahia is much more stable: WDDDD

The visitors secured 1 win and 4 draws recently

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Chapecoense scores an average of 0.95 goals and concedes 2.05 goals

The hosts average 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded at home

Bahia scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 1.14 goals

Arena CondĂĄ averages 3.8 total goals with an 80% BTTS rate

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match has been recorded so far

Bahia won that match 2-0 away on July 17, 2026

Chapecoense is still looking for their first goal against Bahia

Key Players

Marcinho has scored 2 goals this season for the hosts

Camilo anchors the midfield with a 6.89 average rating

Luciano Juba is Bahia's top defender with 7 goals this season

David Duarte contributes 3 goals and holds a 7.08 rating

Goalkeepers

Anderson is in goal for Chapecoense (rating 6.88, 1 clean sheet)

Ronaldo guards Bahia's goal (rating 7.18, 7 clean sheets)

Influences

The match is played on grass at Arena CondĂĄ

Past matches at this stadium averaged 3.8 goals per game

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