🇧🇷

Serie A

Vitória - Botafogo

08/16/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vitória
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Botafogo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
VITBOT

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.63
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.26
Baralhas  on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)

Botafogo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.23
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.21
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.15
Vitinho not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Villalba on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória with Luan Cândido: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Botafogo: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Botafogo with Kauan Toledo: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Botafogo: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Vitória: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

34%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Botafogo averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Vitória's goal production has stalled recently with 0.3 goals per game compared to a season average of 1.1
  • Extreme historic draw tendency with five consecutive draws in the last five head-to-head matches
Risk Factors
  • Vitória averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Botafogo concedes an average of 1.9 goals per away game
  • Baralhas (2 goals, 3 assists) is missing from Vitória's squad
Overview

Vitória host Botafogo at Estádio Manoel Barradas

Brazilian Serie A match on August 16, 2026, 6:30 PM

Mid-table clash between the 13th and 10th-placed teams

Vitória with 26 points aim to close the gap on Botafogo with 30 points

Form

Vitória are struggling with three consecutive defeats

Form curve for the hosts is WDLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Botafogo stabilized recently with a LWDWD record

The visitors secured two wins and two draws in their last five matches

Statistics

Vitória average 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game this season

Extreme home-away discrepancy for Vitória with only 0.47 goals conceded per home game

Botafogo are stronger offensively, averaging 1.67 goals per match

The visitors concede an average of 1.9 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Extremly balanced historical record between both teams

All of the last 5 head-to-head matches ended in a draw

The last encounter on July 23, 2026, finished in a 0:0 draw

Even goal difference of 2:2 across these five matches

Key Players

Renê is Vitória's top scorer with 5 goals this season

Erick contributed 2 goals and 4 assists in 20 appearances

Diego Tarzia has recorded 2 goals and 2 assists

Danilo is a key player for Botafogo with 7 goals this season

Arthur Cabral has also scored 7 goals so far

Alex Telles shines in defense with 3 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Lucas Arcanjo starts in goal for Vitória with a season rating of 7.00

Vitória have recorded 8 clean sheets so far this season

Warleson guards the goal for Botafogo with an average rating of 7.29

The visitors have managed 3 clean sheets this campaign

Influences

Strong home advantage at Estádio Manoel Barradas, conceding only 7 goals in 15 home matches

Vitória earned 7 of their total 8 clean sheets on home soil

Historically low-scoring matches at this venue, averaging 2.4 goals per game

The stadium surface is natural grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.